There was not a significant job increase in December, in fact the economy lost 80,000 jobs, which was more than most economists and analysts expected–but small consolation to me.

However, there were revised numbers for November and guess what?  For the first month since December 2007 the economy added jobs rather than losing them.  Not a big increase mind you, just a measly 4,000 jobs.  But the fact that there was any increase at all is big news!  And, the best showing in 24 months?  Fantastic!

The Dow?  Gosh, it didn’t make it to the 10,700 forecast, but it did go up about 190 points for the week and was up 4 out of  5 days.  Closing at 10,618 means I was off a little (well 82 points) but the trend was up and that has been a pretty good historical forecast for the coming year.

The above mentioned predictions were on the whole wrong.  I admit it.  Due to my overly optimistic  and hopeful expectations.  But not really by far.

Here is the tally:  My December job numbers off by 130,000 and November off by a measly 16,000.  The DOW up only a bit on Friday and I wanted another 100 points or so.  Oh, well.

Not so bad overall and pretty dang good in the stratospheric fields of economic and market estimating  (to which I do not belong).  Consider it luck.

But there is a greater issue here, a real lesson to be learned for the average Joe and Jolene out there.

It is that you simply can’t rely on the professional prognosticators.  Whether they are economists or market analysts they are just not to be trusted.

You see, despite what you might here, all the predictions are just one person’s view and most of them have their own reasons (likely economic gain).

A straight forward thing to remember (and this could save you a lot of m0ney and grief in the future):  at any given moment 1/2 of the economists (or analysts) will be wrong and less than 1/2 of them will be right.  Go figure.

There are no formulas or equations or strategies that work all the time or even  most of the time . . . over the short-term or long-term.  If there were the majority of us would glom onto them and we would all be millionaires.

So, consider this some very direct advice (a warning if you will): don’t believe anything you here or read regarding the economy or markets.

To get ahead, or even to stay in-tune with what is going on, you have to listen to both (or however many) sides and then consider them with what you already know. Then make your own decision about what is right.

This lesson is valid for economics, politics, social issues, menu selection or anything  else requiring human reasoning . . . especially for any predictions you may read here.

No simple answers folks.

Gotta do some homework on your own, and even then a decision may not be forthcoming and you will have to go with your ‘gut’ feeling.

Do not buy any stock because that CNBC circus act Cramer tells you to.  Do not go out and buy a home right  because Paul Krugman says that interest rates will go up tomorrow, and especially don’t quit your job and expect to get a better one soon because you hear Bernanke testify before Congress that the economy is on its way up.

All those people offer opinions only (and all are being paid to do so) and you are smart enough to have your own.

So do I.  Some have cost me and some have profited.  Life goes on.  Like my 92 year old dad told me:  you only have to be right 51% of the time to get rich.

We can only hope.

With that bit of advice I wish all of you a very happy New Year!

Thanks to gage skidmore for the photo from Flickr

This is to be expected I suppose with the continuing weakness of the Dollar.  You sell the same, or perhaps a few more, number of products overseas at the same price in local currencies and you are going to get more $$ in return.  This is particularly true of the companies mentioned above because they have a big presence in countries like China, India and Brazil where last quarter’s (or 2009) GDP estimates are MUCH greater than those in the U.S.  For example, China’s economy is expected to grow at a rate of over 8% in 2009 (negative 2.4% for the U.S.) and Brazil’s GDP grew nearly 8% in the third quarter, or more than twice the GDP growth rate for the same period in the U.S.

Governments and people alike are spending in these countries.  And they are buying great consumer products made by American companies such as those I mention above.  Cause for joy?

Tack on to this a DOW that is well above 10,000 (even with a 100+ point loss in the last two days of last week).

Sounds pretty good doesn’t it?

Maybe so, but I am concerned about a few things . . . like Obama’s public satisfaction ratings dropping below the 50% level in two major polls this week.  I think that these polls are forward looking (6-12 months) just as much as the markets normally are (and here I feel I must remind you that they are still WAY below levels from two years ago).  Hold on here buckaroo!

Tack on to that a few other parcels of data such as the unemployment rate at post-depression highs, the real unemployment rate about 17.5% (adding in those job-hunters who have just quit looking or have taken part-time/underpaying jobs), almost ONE IN FIVE AMERICANS un- or under-employed, more than 120 banks have failed this year, lenders are being more restrictive, consumer confidence is low, and credit card companies are raising rates (in the face of record low rates from the FED) and they are adding all kinds of crazy fees for dumb little things (you know what I mean if you have read a CC statement lately).

This has been a good year as far as market equities go (since March 9’s low anyway) but after any kind of Santa Claus rally there is bound to be  a big dose of concern and dubiosity.

Ah huh, times are great for employers (who are still in business)  . . . they can hire the best talent out there on the cheap, and they are cutting costs in other ways too.

However, you and I know that this is not a great time for consumers or workers and it sure as heck isn’t a good time for government (spending our tax dollars for the next five years this year).

Truly, this is all a tough read economically right now.

If you read or hear about highly positive thoughts from economists in the next couple of weeks you had better check who they are working for (banks, lenders, GM, or others with TARP $$).

If you hear or read about highly positive vibes coming from any politician in the next couple of months you had better check who they are working for (and it ain’t you my friend!).

Two problems reign supreme  now: unemployment and public (the government’s) debt.

If President Obama and Congress don’t get a handle on BOTH of these pretty quick then you had better lock the barn doors and hide the chickens.

This isn’t a gloomy forecast . . . it is more of a warning of what could be ahead IF . . . . . .

And, IF you want change you had better be calling and writing your elected leaders to get to work on the two problems noted above.

It doesn’t take a genius to recognize this (I am sure you do) but our elected leaders are rarely genuises (as history has amply proven).

That means you know what to do even if they don’t!!

thanks to flickr’s danoxster for the photo

Apparently I am one of only a few that feels this way.

The preliminary consumer confidence number is out — 66 — lower than 71 expected by the average economist (a frightening prospect since no economist I have ever met is average.)  This 66 is lower than the 70.6 for October.  A decline in consumer confidence is certainly not welcome at this point.

On top of that our trade deficit is widening.  August showed a $30+ billion deficit.  September (the number released today) revealed a deficit of $36+ billion.

Taken together the sum is a worsening economy.  At least on the surface.

Consumers are less willing to shop (or at least buy).  Moreover when they do buy they are buying the cheaper stuff that is imported from countries with steeply lower labor costs . . . mainly China.

But not to fear!

Lately I have ridden a black horse to every blog written (a magnificent steed fed by the faux hay of unemployment).

Today, however, I arrived on a white horse that is thin and appears to be starving . . . but white none-the-less.

Why?

Well, the number are not good true.  I have had to look far and wide to generate even a modicum of positive feelings.  Yet, I have found something to encourage me.

My wife, the perfect model for America’s stay at home mom, has changed from the window shopping mode of the past year to a genuine ‘let’s go shopping today and spend some money’  mode that makes me shiver and shake in my ‘boots.’

Years ago when we were fist married and money was scarce, our dates were mostly ’shopping’ dates.  Lots and lots of shopping but never any buying.  We would drive, or walk. around and pretend to be shopping for things we desired.  There were couches, TV’s, kitchen appliances and much more that were chosen but never bought.  It was fun since we actually believed we were preparing for a more prosperous future.

As you might imagine, that fake shopping mode has been the trend in our household for the last year or so.

Now it has changed.  Judy is ready to spend . . . convinced we can afford to be more generous this year.  It has worked too.  There are Christmas gifts filling a corner of our bedroom and today she wants to find some more.

Why the change?

Great bargains are out there and she wants a bunch of them.

Retailers are lowering prices(and here I mean really lowering) to attract customers and there are some fantastic deals out there!  With Black Friday (when retailers finally get their ‘net’ into the black) weeks away you would be shocked to know how many great prices are lining the aisles.  Customarily the best deals are after ‘Black Friday’ when stores are forced to get rid of everything left so that their inventories are low and they can start ordering next years favorite products.

Not this year.

The standard seems to be 50% off on most end-caps (the valuable display space at the end of each aisle).  We have seen 70% some places.  Even I am getting excited.  Maybe there is a good golf-cart cover out there at a really good price (hint, hint).

My wife is like a kid (or me) in a candy shop: too many good deals to pass up.  “Maybe we should get a little extra for each of the kids and grandkids” she says, “you know, because we were so stingy last year?”  And then the ‘holy grail’ for retailers: “We might even want to buy this for later, even though we don’t need it now.”  Holy Mackeral!

Fact is I agree.  We WILL spend more this year than last (lots more if Jude gets her way).

So the real good news?

I think as reality sinks in (the 2nd great depression failed to appear and is no longer a concern) others will start thinking the same.  The pain of last year is a still vivid memory but the future looks brighter.  Stock markets are way up.  Government spending is starting to have the intended affect and President Obama  is calling for a “jobs’ conference next month.  Unemployment might finally get the attention it deserves.

All of a sudden there is HOPE!

Bottom line?

Get out and spend, don’t go crazy but spend all the same.  Buy two Christmas presents instead of one for those you love and care about.  Buy something for yourself while you are at it.  Take advantage of the best prices on toys, electronics, stylish clothes and golf stuff (any of my family reading this can take notice . . . please).

We, the people, can take the final step to pull ourselves out of this recession.  Spend this Holiday season.  That alone will create jobs, increase confidence, and increase profits at our domestic companies so that they will start hiring again.

Can’t wait for 2010 — only two years away from the end of the world: spend some $$ and go see the blockbuster(?) movie ‘2012′ this weekend . . . and get candy as well as popcorn.

Remember spend what you can and do it wisely but for heavens sake lets do our part and start spending our way out of the recession!

This message is brought to you by all the mothers and grandmothers who can never buy enough ‘cool’ stuff for their kids and grandkids

thanks for the photo to flickrs  allybeag

To be honest, I was surprised at the unemployment number . . . shocked would be more like it.  Seems all the news was good.  Only 247,000 jobs were lost in July–I was expecting 400,000.  More importantly the unemployment rate went down for the first time in 15 months (from 9.5% to 9.4%).  Even the average hours worked and average pay went up a bit.

So, the Prez. this morning told us the recession is ending (at least he thinks it is soon).  You don’t have to believe him but the numbers don’t lie (oh wait, who puts the numbers together?). 

Frankly I was not expecting this for a few more months.  But, you know what?  The stock market is a leading economic indicator of about 6 months (some think longer) and it turned up with a vengeance in mid-March or roughly 5 months ago. Who’da man?  Obama-man!

The stock markets just keep going up, even with occasional bad news.  This sure looks like a ‘V’ shaped recovery to me.  I’m kicking myself for selling some of my investments in April because I thought this was going to be a “W’ recovery and I could buy them back cheaper (big mistake).  If I had held on to them until yesterday I could have bought a new car even without the taxpayers $4,500 clunker bonus (a KIA anyway on a five year contract at 4%).

I have revised my thoughts on the subject and am now quite comfortable with GDP growth in the third quarter (July, August, September).  In fact, as corporations see the changes coming  they are going to start planning for growth and it is possible, remote, that we just might, maybe, not reach 10% unemployment this year.  That would be great news, like Freddie Mac (the government sponsored mortgage backer) declaring yesterday they had a PROFIT for the last quarter.

Still, telling the 14,000,000 or so folks that want jobs and can’t find them that the recession is just about over is little consolation.  They want jobs YESTERDAY!

So, Mr. President.  Put some real effort into employment until it works and then most everybody will be happy (well, excepting right-wing radicals like Glen Beck and Sarah Palin).  Get the unemployment numbers back to 5 1/2% within two years and I might even vote for you next time around (wait, I’ve sworn on penalty of public service, cleaning freeway right-of-ways, that I will NOT vote for any incumbent — think term limits).

Thank heavens for the stimulus package . . . now spend what is left of it to create jobs and modernize our infrastructure.  You’d better if you even want to dream about getting my vote.

I wish I felt confident enough to put some $$$ into the market and ride this ‘bull’ for a while– but I don’t.  To many things could go wrong (like America’s growing debt and the possibility of mortgage shattering inflation–just to name two).

thanks to flickr’s zhurnaly for the photo

Don’t believe it.

It is happening NOW!? In earlier posts I stuck out my neck and predicted an early?recovery of the markets (as in stock).? That seemed pretty aggressive a month or two ago.? No longer.? Markets are leading indicators.? A five week run on the positive side seemed unthinkable six weeks ago.? A 25% gain in that period was dream-stuff.? Now it is real and building.? A further 25% will put the Dow Industrials at the 10,000 level I wrote about as the target for June.?

Not so unthinkable is it?

Why is this all happening?? Is it the incredible stimulus and bailouts invested by our government?? Not really.? Only a tiny (and I mean a miniscule tiny here) of those have had time to take affect.? Capitalism works, without all the outside intervention, and we are watching it go on its merry way.

The markets are like a pendulum, and a wild one at that.? Almost always we can expect the market pendulum to swing (way) too far one way or the other.? This is caused by the herd mentality of our populace, enhance by far-out predicitions from the media.? This pendulum effect is far worse today than fifty years ago.? Blame that on the media, the internet, the Congress, the Fed (Reserve), the Treasury (Department), your local newspapers (if you have any left).

I remember once in college, I got to a class a little early and a couple of students were waiting outside the door.? I joined them, not even thinking about it.? After ten minutes the entire class was waiting.? Pretty soon the Professor arrived and started waiting too.? After ten more minutes someone thought to open the door and look inside.? The room was empty.? What a bunch of morons! And sheep.? These are the same people we are ‘following’ today.

Jeez Louise, how I wish we all thunk (plural of think in my odd universe) for ourselves.?That would be?cool, fool.

Yet, economically the tide is turning, the pendulum has started the move back, and it will pick up speed.? The new administration has stopped ‘nay saying’ and started to be more encouraging . . . on all fronts.? Confidence in building.? Spending will pick up and the economy will get back on track.? A whole bunch of American sheep will be piling on soon (most of them too late to enjoy the full benefits of the current upward?move).?

Follow the ‘crowd thoery’ and watch with wonder.? I won’t trouble you with analysis of all the leading indicators but they are swinging the right way too.? This I will reconfirm: Dow 10,000 by June.? Positive GDP growth in the third quarter for sure (I actually think we can see positive GDP in this, the second, qaurter).

The recovery has started.? The stimulus helped, primarily because it gave people hope and then confidence.? Did we need it?? Probably (but not for the reasons you think).? Do we need all the ‘rest’ of it now?? Probably not (let the free markets take over).?

It will take two years or so for all the stimulus and bailouts to take affect.? We will be far into the next expansion by then and frankly all that extra spending (investing) will be wasted.

I wish we could pull a bunch of the spending off the table.? Possible, and not likely.??When has Congress ever made a timely AND?right decision?? I read about one on December 8, 1941 . . . haven’t heard of one since.? Need I remind you that we need TERM LIMITS!? That would be the best change of all.

Stimulus?? Bailouts?? Tax cuts?? Deficit spending?? Fiscal and monetary action?? That’s the old news.? The new news is refininancing at much lower?rates, buying homes at 75% of their value from two years ago (and at rates as low as 4.5% for 30 years),?people saving for rainy days (and hopefully putting some of that savings into good equities?that will help protect against the coming inflation (yikes!).?On top of all that we stood up to the pirates and pulled a John Wayne on them!? Way to go BHO.? So!

Doctor, the patient is alive and well, just give him a few months to start running again.?

I’m fully invested and I don’t care about the ups and downs the market will experience in the next year or so.? But, I am sure it will be a good 50% or more higher in a year than it is right now.? I’ll hang on for that gain and count myself lucky to have had the opportunity.? By the way I bought some oil trackers and so as oil goes up (as it will) my profits will more than pay for the extra cost of gas.

This next year is going to be fun, exciting and provide a myriad of opportunities to the confident and brave.?

Cautionary note:? by 2010 inflation could be a bugaboo, by 2011 it will be awful (double digits is possible).? Then watch out for a whole new set of problems.

Ain’t life fun?

Thanks for the flick photo to army.mil

How about soon??

My bold prediction (see blog of feb 13) was intended to document my belief that our markets (stock) had about bottomed out.??I said that the next week would begin a real rise in prices (stock).? But, and here I ask for some lenience — or at least some sympathy, the one week predicition was not as significant as the prediction about where markets would be in a few months or at the end of the year.

Our talking heads in Washington are all we need to stiffle any progress.? All they have to do is open their mouths (the image here should be Pandora’s box) and we all know what comes out.? Nothing good, most of the time.? Our cheer leaders have become ‘boo birds’ and that doesn’t help anything.?

Today we hear that comsumer confidence is at an alltime low.? In the 20’s!? No wonder.? Obama and his minions have nothing good to say . . . ever!? And if we hear it from them (the collective we) then we believe it and boom– down go the markets, real-estate values, paychecks, confidence, emotions . . . .

BUT . . .?I stick with my longer term predictions and I’ll tell you why.? Confidence is at an all time low.? The markets (as measured by the dow and s&p) are at levels we haven’t seen since 1997.? Unemployment is at 7.6% and climbing.? Advertising rates are way off.? Retail sales are plummeting.? Oil is way low compared to a year ago, but gas prices are not so low.??I could go on.? There is NO reason to be positive.

Except.? this is AMERICA.? When things get bad, we get together.? When things are worse, we look around and do what we can to help.?

Take a conversation?I overheard the other day.??A nieghbor who has lost his job has been frustrated in his search for a new one.? During a conversation,?I heard first one other neighbor, and then yet another, offer some encouragement and even some suggestions as to where the unemployed guy could look.? Then, yet another guy joined in and said that his company had an opening and promised to arrange an interview (which by the way he did).? Now, this is no fairy tale with a beautiful princess or handsome prince at the end.? It is just real life in AMERICA.? Turns out the job was only temporary and at a much lower wage than expected . . . but (and here is the great AMERICA part) if the guy did a good job then he would probably get offered a?fulltime thing at a much higher wage.?

AMERICA — where people start humbly, prove themselves and move on to bigger and better things (and get a lot of help from freinds and neighbors along the way).

That is why my bold prediction stands.? Maybe not for last week in the market (‘cuz it was ugly I tell you) but still for the mid and long term.? go back and read it.??I may have been off on the short term by a week or two or so . . . but the rest stands.?

Don’t complain until the longer part has played out.?

I’m still confident.?

I’ve put my money where why words are.?

Come this summer, I’ll be right, just wait and see (if not I’ll be the one looking for help from my neighbors . . . and you know why I’m not worried sick?? I’ll get that help . . . that is what makes us great–that is why confidence will start to improve etc. etc. etc).

Bank on it!?

Just don’t bank with CITI, BofA, Wells Fargo or until the FED gives them some more of my (and your) money . . . that is a blog for another day.

Waiting for your?comments, just not earlier than June for any of the negative type!