I will be honest, I have not stayed out of the market and in fact have traded stocks at a pace about double what I have done in the previous 4 or 5 years.  But I have done so with less money and with substantially shorter-term  trades.  That is what caution and the high volatility of the past two years have dictated (at least from my view).

But hold on here, folks!  The wait for smoke to start pouring out of American factories is about to end.  (please take this metaphorically because lots of growth will come from small business and service industries)

Anywho, starting a few weeks ago I began to take a different tack as the view from the bottom had changed.  I have been looking for investments and not trades.  That means that long-term buys appeal more than short term trading.  I did so very cautiously and with a bit of trepidation. A lot of worry still wracked my fragile mind.

Then as the news piled up last week (I will give you the headlines soon) I realized that key economic indicators were finally confirming my earlier impression.  Now I am looking at investments to hold on to for at least six months and perhaps even a year or more.  Things that have real growth potential in an expanding economy, things that provide a steady income stream via historically high dividends that can only grow if the corner has  really been turned.

Why am I telling you this.

Its simple.

For the first time I don’t believe we will have a “W” recession — the kind where another big downturn would be imminent any day.  For the first time I really believe that a “V” recession is what we have just gone through and that the right-hand side of that “V” is going to be steep and long.

That means companies will start growing, earnings will increase (a lot really since most companies are ‘lean and mean’ right now), tax revenues will begin to increase (so the government can start paying off our incredibly high national debt), and unemployment will start to shrink (not as fast unless Obama really takes action as promised recently).  More importantly, because the FED is keeping interest rates low (no quick end to that policy) and hundreds of billions of Obama’s stimulus plan will start to hit main street this year, growth could be pretty phenomenal.

Now, let me give you a few of the headlines from last week as promised:

“Exports up for 6th straight month, boost recovery” — a weak dollar has helped here

“American’s net worth up for 2nd straight quarter” — think both home values and investment portfolios

“Leading indicators rise for the 8th straight month” — money supply, stock prices, building permits, improving labor markets all helped here

“Americans most pessimistic they’ve been since January”  — this is a contra indicator (from CNBC) and and is mostly reflective of political issues rather than raw economic ones

The bottom line is that I have changed my view on the current recession.

It’s over folks!!

And it is not coming back anytime soon.  It was painful, yes, but the gain from the pain is just ahead.

The next year or so of economic and investment  (primarily stocks) growth is going to be really good — probably at least 3% GDP growth in 2010 and the stock markers should be up steeply as well (but not straight up)  I wouldn’t be surprised with the  Dow at 13-14,000 by next year end.

I’m feeling real good about the near term future ( I always feel good about the long-term future) and I think you should too.

The old caveat on unemployment is always out there but it is a 6-12 month lagging indicator and yet I expect it will begin to improve almost from the first months of 2010. So I’m not going to beat that dead horse anymore (unless Obama and the dems fail to stimulate here as they have recently promised — and I will be watching President Obama).

Whew!  Thanks heaven (and I really mean that).

The recession is over.

Good times are just ahead.

I’m counting on it!

Thanks for the photo from flickr to ahbijeet.rane

Yet, I’ve got neighbors that don’t know how to make ends meet.? Their plates look pretty empty.? And there are about 10,000,000 others just like them out there!

What gives?

Unemployment, that’s what, you knuckleheads in Washington D.C.!? You give billions to Citi and AIG and Chrysler and GM (and a bunch others) to keep their low-powered but high-maintenance executives busy . . . but what have you done lately for my neighbors?? What about the guys and gals I see panhandling at nearly every freeway exit?? How about the poor folk that are living in tent cities (those that local governments haven’t kicked out so we don’t have the constant reminder)?

NOTHING.? Or at least that is how it seems.

Unemployment hit 9.4% today.? The real unemployment is 16.4% when you add in the frustrated people that have quit looking for jobs or taken part-time work just to survive.? That is 16.4% of our neighbors that are going begging.

What about all that vaunted stimulus money that Obama and Giethner and Summers keep talking up?? Hey, folks that stuff is mostly back end loaded.? We won’t see that for another year or so.? Our leaders are sleeping at the wheel.

It is great that BHO is off trying to assuage the hurt feelings of the thugs in the middle-east who have been holding us hostage to oil prices/supplies for the last forty years . . . sure we need some of their help and we need them to make nice.? BUT FOR CRYING OUT LOUD MR. PRESIDENT DO SOMETHING ABOUT THE UNEMPLOYMENT BEFORE YOU START TRAVELING FULLTIME!!!

Crap, why can’t you and Congress start rebuilding the 50% or so of our bridges that are ready to fail.? What about the dams and reservoirs that are weak and overburdened.? How about the 310,000,000 pot holes in our roads (at least one for every man, woman and child in the country)?? How about upgrading our telephone, electricity and water delivery systems?? What about our sewers (you know the ones that fail and create sinkholes big enough to eat an 18-wheeler for lunch)?

Put some people to work Obama.

Start handing out $$ to the middle-class Secretary Giethner (instead of the greedy bankers).

How about recommending that we clean up our lakes and rivers Presidential economic advisor Larry Summers?

Don’t tell me it takes two years to get some real money into the pockets of the women and men who want to work for a living?? China is setting the example with front loaded infrastructure projects.? Let the dang banks and financial institutions pay back the money we ‘loaned’ them, and start creating jobs.? Get the dang money and do some good with it, somehow, someway, somewhere . . . somesmart!

There is only ONE big problem in our economy President Obama.? The same one I have been railing on for, ohh about a year now!

Unemployment, unemployment, unemployement!!? Jobs, jobs, jobs!!!

Get home and get to work quick BHO or your artificially and unjustified popularity numbers are going to start looking like the unemployment stats.? That’s right in the freaking teens!!

The awful numbers will just keep climbing . . . and those are voters.

Do it and do it now!

Thanks for the photo from flickr to brandi666

Multiply the above scenario by way, way too many corporate boards and you have a recipe for disaster.? We are living the results right now (sort of like term limits isn’t it?).? We aren’t getting the ‘best and brightest’ to run our companies, we are getting the ‘best connected.’? A far different circumstance than the average Joe understands.? Truth is the government is the same way.? Shucks, on Fox network’s “24″ last night the President asked her own daughter to be her new chief of staff.? Where do you think the writers got the idea for that?? Yehhp, from the great example of our country’s top corporations and their ‘interlocked’ and demonstrably incompetent boards.

I have a solution.? Replace all?executive sin America with someone capable of doing everything required and still have time left over to help a few neighbors.??Don’t laugh, this is serious stuff.? Our corporations, directed by their ‘boards’, are failing miserably at their mandates (to make money for their shareholders and provide security for their employees).? We need real change.

We need executives with the following traits:

????????? honesty, integrity, concern for others, love (for what they do–not for what they can rip from the cold hands of shareholders), commitment, ability to multitask, focus, native intelligence, desire, decisiveness, analytical ability, willingness to learn new things and then make them work . . . aw Jeez Lousie, I could go on forever here.? But, you get the point.? All the things our current batch of exec’s don’t understand let alone possess.

So, I have searched my memory for all of the executive types I have ever met (myself included).? You know what?? None of them meet the proper range of above criteria.?

So I thought some more.? Do Execs need to have MBA’s or Law degrees or Phd’s?? Heck no.? Do they need to have tons of experience in the field they are working?? Heck no (now this may not be ovbious, but good execs delegate and only make decisions when provided with reasonable alternatives).? Do they need to be the smartest dudes around?? Heck no (and here I need merely refer to the numerous knuckleheads who have failed miserably in their exec positions lately — throw a dart at any group of execs and you are probably going to hit one with an IQ lower than Forest Gump’s).

Back to the drawing boards.?

Then,?Eureka!?

I realized there are a whole bunch of folk out there that meet ALL of the above criteria.? They are faced with multi-task situations every day and make them work.? They labor more hours?than a first year law student.? They are honest, to a fault usually, with all those around them (except when it might hurt feelings and then they just tweak the truth to make it more palatable).? They learn quickly and prove it many times every day.? They?hit the floor running with every new situation that is thrown at them.? They are committed to doing–and doing well.? They are masters of the ’steep learning curve’.? They are intelligent and prove it over and over again.? They can analyze, compute the options, figure out the risks and then decide, and when they do decide nothing on earth will change their direction–unless the facts, or the needs,?change.? Then they are superbly adaptable.? They run around all day long like chickens with their heads cut off, but they do it purposefully and with great efficiency.

We have hundreds of thousands of this special type of person out there.? And let me tell you, they would love those ‘cushy’ executive jobs with the high pay and the?superb benefits and the much shorter hours.? Heck they would probably do all that is required for freaking?FREE.??Just give them hope that they?might enjoy the positive outcomes of their labors with a few restful days at the beach.? Maybe breakfast in bed.? Who knows, a few stock options wouldn’t hurt.

Yeah, they are out there and they are waiting, willing and able.? Call ‘em, telegraph ‘em, fax ‘em, but get them to work on our problems and then get outta the way?’cuz they will make things happen and fast!

I’m talking about stay-at-home moms.?

Right.? you read it correctly.?

Those underappreciated and?overworked bunch of loving, committed, intelligent, wise (there is a difference), quick-witted, top-notch executive capable, women are waiting for the call.

Use them America!??The rest of the world would have to watch out.?

Stay-at-home moms.?

America’s last great resource.?

The best Executives you could ever find!

Stimulus, shimulus!? Problem solved.

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A special thanks to my mom, my wife, my daughter and three daughter-in-laws — everyone of them great mothers and potentially super-great executives!

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Thanks to flickr’ cornish.pixie07 for the photo

Today?I start giving capitalist marks (from one to four thumbs up or thumbs down ). . . depending on how purely capitalist or socialist the issue Iam talking about is.

The issue is the stimulus package?passed by the ?democratic bulldozing of the legislative process.

and the envelope please.? THREE THUMBS DOWN.

The stimulus is much more marxist that capitalist.? Hence three negative marks.

iIve been saying it for months.? Said it the first day of my econ class back last august long before the crisis really hit (Bush was still saying our economy was fundamentally sound… remember?).? The issue is jobs, jobs, jobs!?

And what do we get?? Social programs, special projects, pork, and government stimulus? — not jobs stimulus.

What sector of the economy is going to grow the most in the next 12-24 months as a result of the stimulus?? Government for crying out loud.? Who do you think is going to administer all that money?? And once they get hired do you think they will get let go when the economy turns around?? Nope!? Never happens in the public sector.? Those favored ones are in their jobs?for life.

Oh, my gosh . . . Obama pushed this through in three weeks, Pelosi was his point and Reid his facilitator.? They didn’t do any real bi-partisan negotiating.? They forced three conservative Senators to vote for it by promising disaster and guaranteeing to lame the blame on them.? NOT A SINGLE REPUBLICAN VOTED FOR IT IN THE HOUSE??????? Doesn’t that say something??

Stimulus, chimulus.? This is crap!? We need jobs . . . NOW–? and not government jobs with way above average compensation and incredibly generous benefits.? Not when steel, auto, carpet, and golf club makers are getting laid off.? (oh wait . . . government workers have lots of time off so maybe they will stimulate the golf club industry).? Mr President, if you really want to spread the wealth around take it from the overpaid and underworked government employees and spread it AROUND.

By the way, if the economy is slowing down so much wouldn’t it make sense that we need less government to administer it (Ahhnold is even laying off in Cali -phoneia0)?? Why don’t we cut government to reduce costs?? Do it simultaneously . . . oh,?I know all the arguments about jobs–heck?I believe most of ‘em– but justice must be served.?

Do you think any Congressmen or Senators will be laying off any of their staff?? Don’t think so.? Betcha they are already placing ads for more help (more likely just giving them to political favorites).

I’m saddened by the failure of our President to listen to both sides.? His tax cut?? You might see a few buck in 9 months or so.? His infrastructure package?? You won’t see any of that for a year or two.? What was he thinking?? Jobs?? Except for government there won’t be enough to matter in 2009.

I?was so hopeful.? Not for this stimulus and not now.? Watch this government ’seed’ grow.? It will be a big redwood in a year or two and how long do redwoods last?? Like, forever!!

Ouch!? Three thumbs down.? And it would have been four except we did need something.? But this?? Yepp.? Three thumbs down.?

Marx, Engels and Lenin (maybe Kruschev too) are laughing in their graves (actually I guess not — they didn’t believe in life after death).

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thanks to? avaloncm from flickr for the photo

Fear mongering and threats are idle when the entire nation is on life support.? Do something worthwhile!? Please, Congressmen &?Senators stop the foolishness and act.? For a life-long (until 4 years ago anyway) republican?I am frustrated by the words and the deeds of members of both parties but particularly the GOP.??I won’t go into the term limit argument again but you know it is out there.

Employ. Stimulate.? Employ. Encourage.? Employ.? And do it now!? Anything less is real PORK!

On the other hand maybe in two years certain elected officials will see that they have commited political suicide.??They will be out the door and then (heaven forbid) one party will control everything in Washington D.C..? Oh, what a ‘party’ that will be??? (welcome back Harry Truman)

Jeez, louise!? Stop shooting yourselves in the foot and start aiming a little higher.?? We can only hope!

Just read in the paper that the air in our wonderful state of Utah is the worst in the nation, and the worst air is right here in the Wasatch Front.? How awful.??We have smog that you could cut with a knife and spread like peanur butter.??Yechhhhh what an image.

To get a break from this?I went golfing yesterday.? Yeah,?I know, sounds stupid.? My wife thinks so and so do my parents and my kids.? But the important thing is that iI don’t?think so.?? Drove to the only course that is open within a 150 mile radius at this time of year (and rarely that). . . wingpointe at the Salt Lake International airport (don’t laugh . . . there are actually a few flights to Canada and so it really is an international airport).? Teed off at one o’clock, when the temperature was 33 degrees farhenheit with wind 15 mph out of the north.? There was still so much snow on the ground that?I lost three golf balls when?I hit them in the snow and they just disappeared.? And?I mean to tell you that these were not just good shots they were great – plus?I lost the balls which is something?I can ill afford to do (not in the monetary sense – think score here).?

Then, there were the greens.? Most were okay, well some were okay, but a bunch were so covered with snow you couldn’t really putt without a snowplow.? One green’s hole and?flag were solid? ice and so the best you could expect was to roll you ball over the frozen hole and count it as a made putt even though the ball didn’t stop.? Fun stuff.? By the fourth hole the temperature?was down to 32 and?I had four layers of clothes on and that wasn’t enough.? The wind was the worst?part of it.??Made a few pars, no birdies (who would’a thunk pars were even possible in the conditions) and a few others? (which on the scorecard?show up as double bogeys?but only because?I can’t stand to put down?anything higher when my fingers are frozen to the pencil).

So, what does this have to do with the bull, as in the market bull (not the kind of bull your broker gives you every time he (or she) calls to tell you that your account needs more cash so he can lose it as well)??

Here’s the deal.

I?had a couple of shots that I simply ‘chunked’.? You may not be intimately familiar with?that term in the sporting sense but?I can tell you that iIam and so is every other golfer who tries to play with not one but two gloves on. . . . (or with a hitch in the backswing)?.???The?’chunk’ . . . a shot that is?made by?swinging the?club with great power but not great finesse.? The ball is hit by just a tiny part of the club and slams into the ground inches from the tee and then rolls about the length of a club before it feebly stops within reach.? Oh, my gosh!!? Its flat out embarassing?– particularly when you are playing?from the blue tees (the one further from the hole and intended for the big boys) with guys who all have complete sets of Taylor Made clubs and custom winter golf outfits.

Back to the title.??I hit two?’chunkers’ yesterday and on the second one?I had this image of giving up golf and trying something less challenging, like badmiton or perhaps nuclear engineering, or running for Congress without a millionaires backing.?

Dang those ‘chunks’.??Sucks when?you try to do something and it just doesn’t turn out the way you?expect.

Hence the bull.?

Our new President wants to get a stimulus plan passed (and by the way so do I? and?about 300 million other Americans).? Problem is Congress is notoriously slow to act . . . they have other?things on their mind. Imporant things such as decorating their offices or framing their pictures from the inauguration.?THe?important stuff that keeps them from doing what they are paid to do.? Obama wants the stimulus immediately and so Congress has agreed to shorten vacations and start?thinking about voting on it in a month or so (guess that is immediate to those knuckleheads).

But assuming congress decides to actually work there are two problems.

First the stimulus coud be a ‘chunk’ . . . kinda like the one Bush pushed through last spring.? The one where $168billion was?doled out to citizens who filed taxes with the intent that they would spend it and stimulate the economy.? The one that didn’t work because you and? I saved the money or paid off bills and didn’t spend it like we were supposed to.??Bush’s advisors said it would work because the brains at treasury said so.? It was supposed to work because if you put $168 billion into people’s hands and if they spend it? . . . then that thing economists call ‘the multiplier’ kicks in and pretty soon that $168 becomes $4-500 billion.? Cool stuff when it works. Didn’t.? Nada.? Zip.? ‘Chunk’!

Second the stimulus needs to work fast (the $168 billion not only didn’t work fast it didn’t work at all).?Fast means weeks or a few months unless you are a politician and then it means?years.? We can’t afford another ‘chunk’ on the coming stimulus.

Whatever amount of our money the government finally decides to pass out needs to be spent so that it does three things (in order of importance):

??? 1 — increase jobs significantly and fast,

??? 2 — improve confidence of the consumer (make ‘em feel like their jobs and salaries are going to be there in a year or two so that they will spend, spend spend),

??? 3 –?(i’ve added this?one as a result of the?$168 billion fiasco) spend our money in such a way that it gets into the hands of people or?businesses that will pump it back into jobs, tvs, vacations . . . .

So Obama and Congress.? Its up to you.? Are you going to?give us the bull back . . . or just more bull#%@& ?

I wish?I had some real hope but these guys don’t play?together well when the?good of the nation is involved (not historically anyway)?and besides they really don’t have to worry about their jobs? so why should they go the extra mile?? Work on the weekend?? You gotta be kidding me!

#%@& (crap)!? I’m going out to practice my?swing so that when the rain stops I can go out into the cold and hit a few more golf balls.? My extra effort?will hopefully mean?I won’t hit more ‘chunks’.?

Sure wish our leaders?would make the same?kind of extra effort for the good of our economy.? Assess, think, debate, agree.

and fast!

Important point.? Send me some stimulus $$ and I PROMISE I will spend it–fast!? Just give me a second chance.

And fast!

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thanks to michiwurm for the flikr photo.

So far:??We have had fed (reserve that is) action greater than ever before — ah, the pristine nature of 0% rates, treasury action (oh my gosh is Paulson still at the helm?) in the form of opening up the currency printing presses, FDIC action to secure deposits, Whitehouse action in the form of pointing blame at anyone but the Executive branch, Congressional action such as contentious opposition to any suggestions from?’that’ Whitehouse . . . and yet the ‘wall still comes crumblin’ down.’?

Here is a perfect example of why we need term limits.? All the guys (and gals) in the categories above find ways to look out for themselves (what? is congress really getting a raise in the midst of this downturn?) and ignore the obvious.? They are worse than talking heads.? They are talking … ?(well just think of another less intellectual part of the anatomy).

All ya gotta do?dudes (that is a?congenial term usually reserved for witless teens — how fitting here)???is open your eyes!!?

America is the greatest consumer economy in the history of the Universe.? Consumption drives our economy.? Anything that greases the wheels of consumption WILL grow the economy.??That is?given and accepted by virtually all economists.?

But . . ?where do the dudes ?I’m talking about ‘lead’ in attempting?to dig ourselves out of this (w)hole mess?

The answer is too obvious for the economic and political ‘genuises to really grasp.? it is right there in front of you — dudes! do something, anything, to motivate, encourage, stimulate and give confidence to . . . THE CONSUMERS!? and do it at once . . . immediately . . . yesterday . . . today . . . and tomorrow!? Stop arguing , discussing and talking.? Try something novel, like actually doing something.

Forget any so called stimuli that will benefit businesses, large or small, or that are intended to?put money in the pockets of individuals (or institutions) that won’t spend it right away.? Forget projects (pet or otherwise) that will take months or years?to implement.? Stop thinking about saving corrupt, inefficient, bloated financial (or manufacturing etc.) corporations that are clearly NOT going to help the problem — and are harming our national heritage of increasing efficiency.

Put the all money and all the effort in doing TWO things and those TWO things only!!? (1) — create jobs now?? (2) — increase confidence now.?

That’s it folks.? Don’t waste time or money on ANYTHING that doesn’t immediately have an impact on those TWO things!

I’m not being paid to work this out but there are solutions that fit the TWO things above.? Read them and open your eyes you knuckleheads!?

Focus only on the TWO things above.? Anything else is worthless and wasted.

Open your eyes! Focus! Open your eyes! Focus! Open your eyes! Focus! Open you . . . . etc. etc. etc. . . .

thanks to focalpunkt at flikr for the photo