First, AIG takes more than $160 BILLION from us taxpayers in lieu of a bankruptcy that would have wiped out any and all further compensation for their management . . . this is not, by the way all, at once but in at least FOUR seperate bailouts over the last 6-7 months.

Hold on here, there is probably something before the above first.? It is the fact that management of AIG found the capacity and intellect to turn one of the biggest (and profitable) corporations in the world into a joke and house of cards with their stupid and reckless investments in derivative financial transactions.? With a company this big (over 100,000 employees) there must be at least 1,000 executives that are grossly overpaid and thus there are 1,000 job openings for the unemployed.

Back on track now. Second, AIG manages to loose more than any company in history last quarter.? The total is an incredible $161,000,000,000!? IN ONE THREE MONTH PERIOD!

Third, with our taxpayer investment to bail out AIG and their incompetent management we (the taxpayers) now own about 80% of the stock of this failed company.

Fourth, the management of AIG has been responsible for ‘pushing’ the stock too hard.? Yeh, pushing it all the way from $74/share to a low of $0.34/share? on March 2, 2009.? Don’t get out your calculators, I’ll do the work for you.? That is a decline in stock value of 99%!!

Fifth, our leaders (from Bush and Paulson to Obama and Giethner) believe that AIG is TOO big to let fail.? Well, the market cap of that entire company was only $1 Billion just a week ago (it is about $2.2 Billion today).? To give you some perspective some other ’struggling’ ?companies today have a market cap (multiply shares outstanding by the price of a singe share) of: GM — $1.5B, CITI bank?– $13.6 B, Ford — $5.5 B, and DELL — $18 B.

Sixth, we (and I guess here I have to mean the Treasury Department by default) ought to be making the key decisions about this company going forward.? Certainly NOT the management who got the company into this mess.? (As a further aside here, if the mafia had any money invested in AIG?then maybe we won’t have to worry about current managment much longer — unless they can manage from the bottom of the Hudson while wearing stylish cement boots)

And lastly, there is an argument out there that we have to keep the idiots who are managing this company in place to complete the workout.? Holy Cow!? Hey, Batman, isn’t it true that hundreds of thousands of the best financial minds in the business (oxymoron) are UNEMPLOYED right now.? NOBODY NEEDS BONUSES IN THIS MARKET TO KEEP A JOB.? There are?at least?10,000 capable people who would do anything right now to get any job let alone one like helping turn around AIG.? Count me in that list.

AIG is a mess.? The picture above, represents the executive kitchen at AIG.? It is indicative of how management there operates.? Make a mess … go on to the next thing … make another mess … go on to the next.? They just don’t bother to clean up first.? My mother would send me to my room if I went out to play before cleaning up!

Clean this mess up President Obama, they are NOT to lare to fail.? Stop any bonuses from being paid Mr. Giethner, this company does not need the kind of management they have now.? Send the knuckleheads responsible for the bonuses to their rooms (and I hope they are 12′x8′ rooms with bars).

Stop the bonuses.? Don’t permit the American taxpayer to be a part of such incredible ‘hutzpah’ and insensitivity.? These guys managing AIG don’t deserve a second chance.? Can ‘em.? I have enough experience to step in right now and there are thousands of?unemployed out there who are a whole lot smarter than me and would jump twice as hard to get any of those?jobs.

AIG’s management — are they nuts?? Heck, yes!

thanks to flickrs photo from eschipul

Frankly his speech on the new bank and financial bailout?plan (you know the . . .?the rest of the $700?billion TARP)?was one of the worst ever by a Treasury official.? Geithner (until recently the head of the NY Fed) makes Paulson?seem like superman!

After more than a week of hype all we get was:? ‘we’re gonna do a little of this and a little of that and it will cost a couple of TRILLION $$$ more and it may or may not work and we don’t know exactly what we’re gonna do and it may change but we will try and it will involve government and private sector and you may not like what you hear but it is what it is and i’m coverin’ my bases ‘cuz if it fails i still want my big government pension and . . . . .”?

Oh my gosh!? Can’t he give us even a tiny bone to chew on?

You get the idea.

the Treasury Secretary has got to have his head messed up to give such drivel to the public, the markets, the congress, the press.? After all the work you’ve done Timothy you can’t come up with something concrete?? Why talk at all??

Don’t schedule a press conference days in advance and promote it with all kinds of ridiculous hype, if you don’t have some of the right questions let alone any of the right answers!? We deserve better.??I demand better.? Obama you made a mistake here and you had better start doing something to correct it.? This guy is worse than Daschle.

Think about this.? Geithner was, afterall, part of the wonderful solution worked out in the last months of the prior administration.? You know, the solution that did such a great job with AIG, Lehmans Brothers, fannie and freddie.? Teah, those were winners and sure helped improve the situation.??Now this?

Give me a break.??I only have a Bachelors degree in economics (albeit with a MBA kicker to help undo the damamge of too much econ theory) and though I’ve only taught macro-econ one semester in college–yet,?even?I see the stupidity of talking about nothing when the nation is in crisis.?

Give us SOMETHING!!? What did he do with his Phd. in Economics?? Maybe it was from one of those mail-in schools — you know –? the University of Whats’it.? .? 47 years old and?I don’t think he has really worked for anyone other than the government!!? Maybe we need term limits for bureaucrats as well as for elected officials.? YOU JUST CAN”T WORK FOR THE GOVERMENT YOUR WHOLE LIFE AND STILL HAVE A CLUE ABOUT LIFE IN THE REAL WORLD!!!!? Does he shop at Walmart like most of the rest of us have to now?

My dad told me not to criticize unless?I had a better idea.? well?I do!!? Stop bailing out the financial institutions and the immoral ceo’s.? Let a few of them fail (maybe even more than?a few).? Force?a whole bunch?more to get new management (guys with a clue and some basic honesty).? Let the stuff fall where it may and then start over.? Bear Stearns vs Lehman Brothers . . .? yeah the Fed and Treasury got that one right and that gives us confidence going forward.? Aahhuh.? and I’ve got?some land in Florida I’d like to sell you –? cheap (but cash only, please).?

What is the saying : a pig with lipstick is still a pig?? Did?I get it right.?

This one doesn’t even have the lipstick and it sure as heck can’t fly.?

Dang ugly to look at let alone listen too.?

Strike one timothy.? By the way?here comes the next pitch!? And this one better fly!

?

tahks to jere-me of flickr for the photo

The market is a discounter of future expectations . . . some say 6 months others as much as 24 months in the future.? I?am of the ?6-12 month persuasion.

Why the hope?

To start, some bad marks for the adminstration this year relative to markets.? Paulson and Bernanke were slow to wake up and slower still on the uptake with regards to how to fix the problem(s).? But the hope is in the broad brush approach.? With trillions thrown at the problems from many governments and confidence at an all time low things can’t get much worse, for long.? Hence the suggestion that it is time to start picking up the pieces and make some $$$.

Not gonna find me making stock picks but?I can tell you that?I really believe 2009 will be a ‘rocker’ in the market.?

Here are some of the reasons why.?1– much lower oil prices that are being followed (at an ever quickening pace) by? (2) — lower commodity prices (think corn, wheat, steel, chicken, eggs — or which ever comes first) and a whole bunch more.? Then (3) confidence will rise and Madoff will get what is coming to him.?

Spring will bring warm temps and some really good opportunities . . . entreprenuers need to think ahead and be prepared.? America is about to take the lead again!!? The new adminstration will (4) work at?making friends, not enemies, and the world will take notice.? ‘Buy American’ will become vogue again.

You can hold my feet to the fire on this but here is what I predict for 2009.? The dow will reach 12,000 at some point, the nasdaq 2400, and the s&p 1,200.? There is a lot of pent up demand for things people don’t have the confidence to buy now . . . but they will within 6 months of Obama taking office.? I?didn’t vote for him (and not Mccain either) ?but change is usually good and?BHO gives the impression of intelligence and concern (something woefully missing for the last 8 years).

Sure we face a grundle of problems but capitalism has been on hold for over a year and in the toilet for the last 6 months.? It will rise again with a vengeance as Chavez and Putin and that knucklehead in Iran realize they bet on the? twice losing horse of socialism and complete gov’t control (and of course perpetualy high oil prices).?

Specific details don’t tell the whole story this early in the game.? But, come back to me in a year and chew me a new one if I’m wrong.?? Still,?don’t bet the farm on it for a few months.? ‘09 is going to be interesting, historical and fun (‘08 was all of that except?the fun part–unless you are a masochist).

This seems a serious and seriously imprudent direction to predict, but?I mean it all.? And don’t think?I lack a sense of humor . . . heck?I voted for bush in ‘00 . . . what’s funnier than that?

As my daughter is fond of saying, “whatever!”?

Yet, be wise, be funny, be cautious, be optimistic and be yourself, then you are all but? guaranteed to have a?GREAT 2009!!!

thanks to *clairity* at flikr for the photo