There was not a significant job increase in December, in fact the economy lost 80,000 jobs, which was more than most economists and analysts expected–but small consolation to me.

However, there were revised numbers for November and guess what?  For the first month since December 2007 the economy added jobs rather than losing them.  Not a big increase mind you, just a measly 4,000 jobs.  But the fact that there was any increase at all is big news!  And, the best showing in 24 months?  Fantastic!

The Dow?  Gosh, it didn’t make it to the 10,700 forecast, but it did go up about 190 points for the week and was up 4 out of  5 days.  Closing at 10,618 means I was off a little (well 82 points) but the trend was up and that has been a pretty good historical forecast for the coming year.

The above mentioned predictions were on the whole wrong.  I admit it.  Due to my overly optimistic  and hopeful expectations.  But not really by far.

Here is the tally:  My December job numbers off by 130,000 and November off by a measly 16,000.  The DOW up only a bit on Friday and I wanted another 100 points or so.  Oh, well.

Not so bad overall and pretty dang good in the stratospheric fields of economic and market estimating  (to which I do not belong).  Consider it luck.

But there is a greater issue here, a real lesson to be learned for the average Joe and Jolene out there.

It is that you simply can’t rely on the professional prognosticators.  Whether they are economists or market analysts they are just not to be trusted.

You see, despite what you might here, all the predictions are just one person’s view and most of them have their own reasons (likely economic gain).

A straight forward thing to remember (and this could save you a lot of m0ney and grief in the future):  at any given moment 1/2 of the economists (or analysts) will be wrong and less than 1/2 of them will be right.  Go figure.

There are no formulas or equations or strategies that work all the time or even  most of the time . . . over the short-term or long-term.  If there were the majority of us would glom onto them and we would all be millionaires.

So, consider this some very direct advice (a warning if you will): don’t believe anything you here or read regarding the economy or markets.

To get ahead, or even to stay in-tune with what is going on, you have to listen to both (or however many) sides and then consider them with what you already know. Then make your own decision about what is right.

This lesson is valid for economics, politics, social issues, menu selection or anything  else requiring human reasoning . . . especially for any predictions you may read here.

No simple answers folks.

Gotta do some homework on your own, and even then a decision may not be forthcoming and you will have to go with your ‘gut’ feeling.

Do not buy any stock because that CNBC circus act Cramer tells you to.  Do not go out and buy a home right  because Paul Krugman says that interest rates will go up tomorrow, and especially don’t quit your job and expect to get a better one soon because you hear Bernanke testify before Congress that the economy is on its way up.

All those people offer opinions only (and all are being paid to do so) and you are smart enough to have your own.

So do I.  Some have cost me and some have profited.  Life goes on.  Like my 92 year old dad told me:  you only have to be right 51% of the time to get rich.

We can only hope.

With that bit of advice I wish all of you a very happy New Year!

Thanks to gage skidmore for the photo from Flickr