However, I believe everything about the first week will depend solely on the unemployment numbers that come out on Friday.  If they are good then the market will take a significant further bounce and the first week will end on a high note (predicting a good year, remember).  If they are bad then I believe Friday will end with a distinct tumble downward in the DOW . . . and investor confidence will follow.

I am feeling confident about what our great country is doing right now and so I am going to make two very imp0rtant predictions of a short-term nature.

The first is that the unemployment numbers will actually be ‘employment’ numbers.  I believe that December will show job growth of around 50,000 jobs.  Further I believe that November’s numbers will be revised upward from the 11,000 jobs lost to a positive number of about 20,000 jobs gained.  Remember that economics is an art not a science and so a 25-50% range in the above numbers is okay.

These job numbers will have a real influence on markets Friday and so I am also predicting (the second one promised above) that Friday the DOW will jump more than 100 points on the good news and set a multi-year high of around 10,700!

I hesitate to make these kind of predictions but I really do believe there is a sumani confluence of factors (record low interest rates, good holiday retail numbers, strong tailwinds in markets, and others as well as . . . real job creation.

It will be fun to see what happens in just two days . . . there aren’t may economists who would support my views right now . . . but short-term predictions are the most fun because they are so quickly proven right or wrong.

Chastise me if it is the latter . . . but send me your congratulations if I am right and take that as congratulations for you too (and our great country)!

thanks to flickr’s ethan bloch

The details aren’t all that important to most of us — including the 15,000,000 unemployed — because while the bill shows some elements of ’sensitivity’ to the problem it isn’t for charity’s sake but rather to keep the Senators who are running for office next year from joining those 15 M in the unemployment lines.

The bill provides for up to 99 weeks of benefits . . . much longer than ever provided before (the previous record was 65 weeks in the 1970’s).  That is an extension of another 20 weeks and the fourth extension since June of 2008.  You can do the math yourself knowing that the average benefits are $300 per week.  Billions of $$ that should, and could, be better spent elsewhere.  And I really am for helping the unemployed . . . but remember that if you teach a man to fish he can live forever!

While you can do the math, you may not be prepared (mentally or emotionally) to figure out what this really means.

Let me tell you.

Numero Uno.  Ninety-nine weeks of unemployment.  That is nearly two years and isn’t higher than that only because of the political implications of providing TRIPLE-DIGIT UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFITS!    So the main reason for this is political . . . not economic.  Okay . . . we got that straight.

Secondly.  It is  businesses who pay for much of this benefit by nature of their contributions to the unemployment funds of each state and the federal government.  So, on a macro-micro level this benefit represents billions of $$ that businesses simply can’t spend on JOBS!  Ah, know you are seeing further political implications here . . . more democratic income shifting (a favorite ploy of the socialist left).

Thirdly and finally.  This extension of 99 weeks means that most (or at least a whole lot) of the unemployed (and their friends and family) will appreciate the impacts of these benefits extended right up to the critical elections of 2010.  Oh, yeah!  Get the picture?? What a dang obvious ploy by the majority democrats (and all of congress)  to buy votes so that they can stay in office (if it isn’t a direct political maneuver, it sure stinks like one).

Or course anyone who has been reading CapitalistMarks for more than a week knows that our #1 priority right now is unemployment.  But paying people to stay on unemployment even longer just isn’t right.  Fact is I know of one talented young guy who feels perfectly comfortable taking unemployment benefits (just about anyone can live on $1,200 a month tax free for 99 weeks) until he simply has to look for work.  That isn’t good for him and it sure isn’t good for you and me.

Congress is enabling again.  Just what we don’t need.

What we really need is all of those billions of $$ being spent to CREATE jobs (and a few hundred billion $$ more).  Stop paying people NOT to work and create jobs for them.  Or provide education so they can get better jobs.  Put them to work and not in front of their TV’s.

Another failure of moral balance by our Congress (democrats and republicans alike really).  Another great reason for term limits.  Another great reason to NEVER, EVER, EVER vote for an incumbent (and that goes quadruple for any that have had two terms or more!!!).

Light up the phones once again.  Swamp the web.  Write those snail-mail letters.  Get congress back on the right track.  Get America back to work.

Thank you and good-night for Pete’s sake!!

thanks to flickrs kaibara87 for the phots

To start, check out Ron Pauls’ solution (not bad either) and there are of course other ideas out there.? I am adding mine to the mix and it is the best yet, as you will see.

One thing is for sure, politcally and economically we (the U.S.) can’t let this awful situation continue, let alone get any worse.? It could end next week, or month, if we implement this plan and?bring the problem to a screeching halt.? The plan solves other problems as well, including?economic, political and more importantly unemployment (it will generate thousands of jobs . . . albiet with an?element of danger).

Here it is.

Our government, in collaboration with the U.N. or other governments (if they are willing, but without if they are not), declares a state of war against ’stateless’ pirates (Ron Pauls’ idea sort of gets to this but falls far short).? Then with the declaration in effect?we create lots of jobs by hiring?and training?guards (somebody has to train them — more jobs)?to accompany every American ship that travels in dangerous waters.? This will be like the sky marshal program?and will instantly be effective, cost efficient and most importantly ‘job creational’.

The pirates criminal acts need to be responded to legally, effectively, immediately, and overwhelmingly.? This plan would accomplish all of the above.? It just might?need a few refinements but it would work and work well!

Frankly, I would volunteer for training tomorrow and I would gladly take several?voyages each year as a guard.? Of course, my wife would come along to keep the weapons clean and in every port we would gladly spend money as tourists (further helping the world economy).

These jobs would have to be well-paid (a good full-time salary for limited part-time work–say no more than six months a year).? They would also have to employ only persons willing and able to do the dirty-work when it is required (please note here that I would consider it an honor to protect a vessel flying the American flag from pirates!).

The guards would in effect be deputized or enlisted so their actions are legal.? They would get training on all necessary weapons (up to and including anything necessary to outmatch the pirates) and be provided with such weapons and ammunition in sufficient quantities to get the job done.? A seperate note here:? every American vessel should be equiped with electronics to ‘jam’ communications from pirates so ‘mother ships’ and others won’t know what is happening.

Further, as an adjunct to this program, the involved navies would have to provide backup support with everything needed (including aircraft)?to ‘blow’ the pirate ships out of the water whenever called upon (including the so-called ‘mother ships’).? This plan would make piracy stupid, dangerous and with no economic benefits.

The new jobs would be good justification in their own right.? In the gulf of Aden alone there are about 20,000 transits per year?and this is not the only place where piracy takes place.? Say, 100,000 jobs at $100,000 per year and you have a $1 billion cost.? The benefits, worldwide, are far?greater than the total cost? and this does not include the benefit from the jobs that would be created (consider ransoms, increased insurance, risk of life and limb, increased costs etc.).?

Let’s do it.? Let’s stop piracy dead in the criminal’s tracks.? Let’s increase employment.? Let’s give veterans that need them a job (they should get preference).? Let’s spread money around the globe as the guards (and spouses if desired) get to see the world.? I admit the last one there is just my way of getting free (even paid) cruising benefits and I doubt the risks would be high after the first month or so.? Pirates would lose interest pretty fast.

Come on President Obama, this is the kind of creative thinking we need in Washington D.C.? and not just for this problem, but for a bunch more we face.? I am just a call away and there are thousands more like me.? The best ideas don’t come from D.C. they come from the ‘heartland’, so make the effort to get ‘our views”.

Capitalism rocks!?

Pirares suck!?

Sign me up, I can blog at sea!!

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Thanks to flickr’s randy son of robert for the photo