This is to be expected I suppose with the continuing weakness of the Dollar.  You sell the same, or perhaps a few more, number of products overseas at the same price in local currencies and you are going to get more $$ in return.  This is particularly true of the companies mentioned above because they have a big presence in countries like China, India and Brazil where last quarter’s (or 2009) GDP estimates are MUCH greater than those in the U.S.  For example, China’s economy is expected to grow at a rate of over 8% in 2009 (negative 2.4% for the U.S.) and Brazil’s GDP grew nearly 8% in the third quarter, or more than twice the GDP growth rate for the same period in the U.S.

Governments and people alike are spending in these countries.  And they are buying great consumer products made by American companies such as those I mention above.  Cause for joy?

Tack on to this a DOW that is well above 10,000 (even with a 100+ point loss in the last two days of last week).

Sounds pretty good doesn’t it?

Maybe so, but I am concerned about a few things . . . like Obama’s public satisfaction ratings dropping below the 50% level in two major polls this week.  I think that these polls are forward looking (6-12 months) just as much as the markets normally are (and here I feel I must remind you that they are still WAY below levels from two years ago).  Hold on here buckaroo!

Tack on to that a few other parcels of data such as the unemployment rate at post-depression highs, the real unemployment rate about 17.5% (adding in those job-hunters who have just quit looking or have taken part-time/underpaying jobs), almost ONE IN FIVE AMERICANS un- or under-employed, more than 120 banks have failed this year, lenders are being more restrictive, consumer confidence is low, and credit card companies are raising rates (in the face of record low rates from the FED) and they are adding all kinds of crazy fees for dumb little things (you know what I mean if you have read a CC statement lately).

This has been a good year as far as market equities go (since March 9’s low anyway) but after any kind of Santa Claus rally there is bound to be  a big dose of concern and dubiosity.

Ah huh, times are great for employers (who are still in business)  . . . they can hire the best talent out there on the cheap, and they are cutting costs in other ways too.

However, you and I know that this is not a great time for consumers or workers and it sure as heck isn’t a good time for government (spending our tax dollars for the next five years this year).

Truly, this is all a tough read economically right now.

If you read or hear about highly positive thoughts from economists in the next couple of weeks you had better check who they are working for (banks, lenders, GM, or others with TARP $$).

If you hear or read about highly positive vibes coming from any politician in the next couple of months you had better check who they are working for (and it ain’t you my friend!).

Two problems reign supreme  now: unemployment and public (the government’s) debt.

If President Obama and Congress don’t get a handle on BOTH of these pretty quick then you had better lock the barn doors and hide the chickens.

This isn’t a gloomy forecast . . . it is more of a warning of what could be ahead IF . . . . . .

And, IF you want change you had better be calling and writing your elected leaders to get to work on the two problems noted above.

It doesn’t take a genius to recognize this (I am sure you do) but our elected leaders are rarely genuises (as history has amply proven).

That means you know what to do even if they don’t!!

thanks to flickr’s danoxster for the photo

They used what they grew or trapped or hunted or harvested and that was about it.  And they were happy and content.  Don’t forget the odd part because that may have been crucial to their contentedness.

Not now.

Why can’t we learn from our ancestors?

We need to give back and quit just taking.

The problem is that we just don’t want to and it starts at the top.  President Obama and Congress want to spend more than they make from taxing us (to the tune of trillions of $$).  And we want to let them (we elected the democratic majority didn’t we?  But the Repubs haven’t been any better for years!).

We have to moderate spending (publicly and personally) and use what we have and no more.  How hard can that be?

It isn’t going to get easier if we don’t act now.

Sure markets are up all over the world, including the U.S.  But the news isn’t all good.  The Conference Board let us know recently that leading economic indicators are up for the fourth consecutive month.  So what?  The bad stuff is hidden in the overconfident headlines that the media glombed onto.

Six of the ten leading indicators were up.  True.  But what about the ones that were down? Not so good.

The biggest negative was consumer expectations.  Followed by real money suupply (how can the consumer be confident if the money isn’t there to spend — yeah and on stuff they can’t or shouldn’t afford).  And the third?  Building permits!!

Yikes, what got us into this mess.  Money freezing up and the housing debacle and consumers running for the shed.

Why are we so stupid as to think the government can throw trillions of our $$ at these current problems and bail us all out long term.

Let me give you an example that will resonate.

The feds pumped $3 billion into the clunker program and around 600,000 cars were sold (or will be by tomorrow).  The feds also gave first time homebuyers and $8,000 credit (and that expires in November) and that’s a few billion $ more.

A shot across the bow of the recession that will end up being a shot in the foot~!

So what will happen in the next few months.  I’ll tell you and you can check back and chastise me in those few months if this doesn’t happen.  It is so dang predictable because Congress and the President are more interested in voting polls than in what is good for our country.

We are going to see a BIG drop in new car sales and a BIG drop in first time homebuyers because the feds stimulated them to all buy quickly without really considering the long term (or even mid-term) implications for them or the government’s debt.

And what will that do to the economy?  Fro crap’s sake it will help justify the NEXT wave of stimulus and bailouts (that some of our leaders are already talking about) as the recession refuses to go away.

More debt.  Like heck do we need it.

I’m not saying we all have to go live off the land, although it sounds good to some.  Shoot, that would be impossible with 307 million people.  But we can learn from our nation’s original inhabitants and just ‘use only what we have’ and wait for anything else until we can get it without going into debt or stealing from out children and grandchildren.

If you don’t need it and can’t afford it, save.  If you want it too bad, borrow it from a neighbor (assuming they will let you).  Don’t steal.  But you can dream . . . that is always authorized in my economic scheme of things.

Give back to the land and the people and stop this selfish consumer driven ‘better that the joneses’ drivel.

Enough is enough. You make up your mind to do this and force our leaders to follow.

Start by throwing out  ALL incumbents.  You can do like I have done for the last couple of elections.  Never, never, never vote for anybody this is an incumbent!

Had enough?  Dang, wait until I start charging you to find out what is REALLY going on in our country!!  Then you can REALLY get mad!

thanks to flickr’s tokomabibelot for the photo from the Jefferson Building in D.C. it is Lakota Chief Ito-na-gaju, “Rain in the face” and how appropriate is that??