Sure, occasionally a few will get lucky and forecast  a bubble or something like that (remember ‘irrational exuberance’?).  But once they get lucky they hang on to their ‘model’ for too long and they miss the next leg up or down (the economy and not necessarily the markets).  We all suffer but they keep their big six-digit salary and bonuses!

Why?

Economics is art as much as science.  A few decades ago economists thought it would be cool to use complex mathematics (econometrics) to create models and forecast all sorts of things . . . stock markets, trade, employment, interest rates or whatever.  The fact is there are so many models now that someone, somewhere is bound to be right at any particular moment in economic history.  Then, as soon as the press, Congress, banks and investors are patting the lucky few on the back, something odd happens.  The science turns to art and the whole picture as ‘they’ see it blurs and some bubble bursts.

Ouch, there we go again.  Whammy, a few million jobs are lost, trillions are spent by governments and central banks go bottom fishing with interest rates that we all wish would translate to our credit card accounts.  Naturally taxes go up, government grows and the middle-class gets smaller — yes, the rich to get richer and the poor get poorer in just about any economic scenario since WWII.

I’m tired of this cycle of idiocy.  Furthermore I I have a solution.

We need a Supreme Court of Economists.  Nine of them.  Each with ten years experience (at least) and preferably (but not necessarily) an advanced degree in the field.  Oh wait, at least two of the nine have to be in industry or private practice and MUST have no academic credentials (i.e. they have NOT been resident economists at ANY institution of higher learning AND have NEVER worked for ANY government agency).

These nine economic jurists must be from at least five different ’schools’ of economic thought (one Keynesian, one Smithian, one Galbraithian, one supply sider or whatever) and there can be no more than two with similar takes on economics (based on actual evidence from the past).

This Supreme Economic Court must meet monthly and issue a ‘State of the Union’ paper each month.  This paper must show a consensus (majority) and be written so that any high-school graduate can understand it (now that is going to be tricky for any economist).  If there are alternative views by two or more dissenters these must also be provided.

Now comes the good part.  EVERY banker, Congressman, and financial analyst or advisor MUST read the monthly report.  The President too.  Then each of the above must sign a statement (monthly remember) that they agree with the paper or document why not.  These statements must be notarized and filed with some central agency (the economic police!).

All of the above must be made available to EVERY citizen to read and comment on if they want.  No legislation can be even drafted that is contrary to the consensus without a public majority vote.  By the way, we can have bunches of these courts in states, counties or bigger cities.

Furthermore, NO decisions can be made by any government entity or individual UNLESS such decisions are approved, in the majority, by the Supreme Economic Court.  Again, subject only to a public referendum.

All of the above can be tweaked as time goes on, but I am willing to bet dollars to donuts that if we followed this process we would avoid any prolonged economic downturn in the future.

Oh, by the way, the leader of this ‘court’ is appointed for life and . . . I get to be that guy.  Why not?  Take it or leave it.

Thank you for your attention and cast your vote for the above as soon as the ‘credit card debt’ bubble hits in about 3 to 6 months.

I’m not retreating.

A bunch of other, more wrong than right, economists should.

thanks to flickr’s dennis defrayne for the photo

Know something?? A clown isn’t funny when it does something stupid unintentionally and the flop ends up hurting others.

I?readily admit that there are?some times when certain clowns are never funny i.e. the anti-scoial and unsportsmanlike antics of Bobby Knight the “clown’ king of college basketball, or?Madoff the ‘clown’ king of immoral investment managemen? (he wants to protect $62+ million for his wife)– or any of the CEO’s of about any of the major financial and banking corporation (perhaps the?biggest clowns yet!).

The issue at hand.?? The economy.

Our Secretary of the Treasury is a sad, sad, clown though he tries not to be.? Every word he utters makes things worse. This can’t be intentional, can it?

Giethner spoke today before a Congressional committee — jeez louise,?I thought the guy was dead,?I mean where has he been since his worthless ‘high-profile’ speech a couple of weeks ago?? You know, the one that sent the markets into a tailspin.

My of my, what, an unfunny guy.? To think that I thought Bush’s appointees were clowns.? Obama’s set a new standard that indicate he recruits solely from the Barnum & Bailey school of economic napping.

Ya just gotta do something right Tim.? Don’t just stand there and watch the decline.? You are the freakin’ Secretary of the Treasury and most of us pay taxes to support you (you sadly do not pay all the taxes you should — at least until hauled in front of Congress).?? You’ve blown it, Obama guy.

Here is the situation.??We are in a fifteen month long recession (so far) and it is getting uglier by the day.??I have written about this before but in a hopeful way.? Now I find little to hope for and a lot to fear, because the new President and his team are NOT offering any encouragement or positive stimulus to the economy.? Quite the contrary.

Geithner and Obama and Reid and Pelosi are?not even trying to be bi-partisan.? They are just good old fashioned spend and govern democrats who?have now managed to push our country (not to mention the rest of the world) into the front end of a big?depression.? Soon that will be true by?almost any definition.

My new outlook (barring any real action by Obama and his crew of motley democratic fools):

Unemployment will reach 10% by mid-summer, GDP?will decline by 10% over the next year,?the recession will go on for at least 24 months (becomind a depression), and people in the USA will suffer, as will people in the U.S.?of?E (European community) and the dis-U.S.?of Soveitsky and all the other U’s and dis-U’s that are out there.? It feels real bad, this puppu could get?real ugly real soon.

Dang it Obama, I had hope for you and yours.? But you chose a tax cheat to be Secretary of the Treasury?? That should have been a glaring warning signal to you and everyone else.?Wasn’t caught by the guys in the easy chairs up on the hill.? This Giethner?guy acts like he has only that Barnum?& Bailey degree?? Come on.? How is he smarter than me?? Or anybody else for that matter?

?I had expectations of new intellectual highs in this administration.? Turns out that the smartest guy from the top down now is Joe, freakin’ Biden??? Aw, heck — how can? this be?? Biden is?only half as smart as Bush (ouch!) and he’s the smartest in this group?? Doesn’t bode well for us.? Maybe its only ‘cuz he speaks?on?TV?less often . . . but then again when he does speak — whoo momma, you wish you could just push the mute button.??Frankly I?find it hard to believe he?attended elementary school let alone graduated.?? And he was a senior senator?? How can?anyone take the guy seriously?? To be sure he reminds me of?Reese in ‘Malcom in the Middle’.

Giethner and the rest of his crew (what crew — he can’t get anyone to join the treasury let alone make it to the mandated Congressional interogation) aren’t doing the job at all??

Obama himself?? Turns out he is a great speaker . . . not such a great decider.? Not yet anyway and the clock is ticking.

Get going, Obama, my man, my fellow lover of basketball (the only truly?manly, non-neanderthal?sport in the world — except at the college and pro level where it is nothing but a showcase of bad ‘tats and worse attitudes — not the skill oriented, non-contact sport?I grew up with).

Whoops, there?I go again,?keep getting side tracked — but realize here that Biden, Pelosi, Reid and Geithner make me seem like a genius!!? Does that frighten you?? It should.?

Obama, my fellow lover of the leather-orb . . . get a clue, take some hints for the guys who manipulate the market for a living . . . they don’t like your ‘plans’ or lack of them at all.? That’s why the stock market has plummeted since your inauguration.

Nobody seems to like of believe?what you are doing (not even your fat-walleted, permanent politician, ne’er-do-wells in the democratic majority congress).? The dow down over 2,000 points since you got elected.? Banks dropping like flies in a sauna since your oath of office.? AIG, that great elusive pyramid scheme, eatin’ up our tax dollars like a happy California cow in good Utah pasture.?

The real bad news?? The whole shebang is gettin’ worse?since your great rose-colored speech a week or so ago.?? Sure you can lay out all the entitlements and social programs you and Pelosi have ever dreamed of,?just tell me how the heck are we gonna pay for them in anybody’s lifetime??

It just ain’t workin’ bud.? Take a deep breath and think it through again.? Then step up to the line a hit nothing but net by deciding and chosing some beauracats (sic) that can at least analyze the alternatives.

By the way, you can’t legislate morality, even though you seem to believe you should?legislate debt and the consequent immorality of it all.?? You wouldn’t be the first one to try and fail.?

You don’t have to make it that way.? Go after the root problem.? UNEMPLOYMENT.? If?a dude has?got a job then he?can pay his?mortgage . . . even if?his house is worth less today than a year ago.? Let the?homeowners stay in their houses for a while–until the value goes up again.? Just keep people EMPLOYED and create jobs for those that are NOT employed.

everything else is smoke and mirrors and nobody that can read at the 8th grade level is buying it.

When is a clown not funny?

Pretty much always, when the clown is a myopic democrat that believes the nincompoops in government know a lot more than the people out there that WORK FOR A LIVING and actually paying taxes.

the arrival of the depression will be too late for you to act responsibly and you have only days or maybe weeks to act — certainly not months.?

Do something smart, intelligent and right.? NOW!!? Even something funny if you must . . . just now something sad and disastrous.

IT AIN”T FUNNY NOW MAN!

Crap, I just remembered, I?hate clowns!!

?

and thanks to mel b. at flick for the photo