Comments on: Mea culpa — economic predictions. http://capitalistmarks.com/economic-daydreaming/2010/01/mea-culpa-economic-predictions Economic musings and more from Scott Hogan Mon, 10 May 2010 04:15:28 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: Chris http://capitalistmarks.com/economic-daydreaming/2010/01/mea-culpa-economic-predictions/comment-page-1#comment-1743 Chris Fri, 15 Jan 2010 14:33:24 +0000 http://capitalistmarks.com/?p=987#comment-1743 Its interesting to think how someone with as much experience and knowledge in economics and in how the world turns, could be so off on his predictions of how the economy will look after only less than a week. Yet even more interesting that even though all his ‘reasons’ for his predictions were wrong and did not happen, his general prediction was fairly accurate. In this article we are encouraged not to take any prediction for face value, and that all theories are to be chewed, savored, and then digested or spit out according to our own feelings or conscious. I raise the question, did the writer chew, savor, and digest the information he acquired and then share with us his feelings and then mislabel the ingredients to what he ate? He knew the flavor was good, or all that he took in about the economic situation was good, and predicted growth. And yet his entire list of ingredients was wrong. To go along with what was said here, not all the evidences we have are accurate. But if we take in all that is said and analyze it, though we may not understand what is said, we will get a general feeling of how this will end up. And that is all that needs to be right at least 51% of the time. Its interesting to think how someone with as much experience and knowledge in economics and in how the world turns, could be so off on his predictions of how the economy will look after only less than a week. Yet even more interesting that even though all his ‘reasons’ for his predictions were wrong and did not happen, his general prediction was fairly accurate.

In this article we are encouraged not to take any prediction for face value, and that all theories are to be chewed, savored, and then digested or spit out according to our own feelings or conscious. I raise the question, did the writer chew, savor, and digest the information he acquired and then share with us his feelings and then mislabel the ingredients to what he ate? He knew the flavor was good, or all that he took in about the economic situation was good, and predicted growth. And yet his entire list of ingredients was wrong.

To go along with what was said here, not all the evidences we have are accurate. But if we take in all that is said and analyze it, though we may not understand what is said, we will get a general feeling of how this will end up. And that is all that needs to be right at least 51% of the time.

]]> By: Nic Lovelace http://capitalistmarks.com/economic-daydreaming/2010/01/mea-culpa-economic-predictions/comment-page-1#comment-1740 Nic Lovelace Fri, 15 Jan 2010 07:49:36 +0000 http://capitalistmarks.com/?p=987#comment-1740 I think one of the fears of many people is to make a prediction and to be wrong in that prediction. I appreciated the fact that you were wrong in your forecasting. Let me explain, it is obvious that you did your due diligence, you named a number of reasons as to why you felt the economy would be reported to be in a better state, nevertheless, you turned out to be incorrect in your prediction, big deal, everyone is probably most of the time. But what I think you have taught the reader is to educate themselves coupled with knowing the opinions of the analyst, or your broker, or your friend, but do your OWN research. And stay true to your own gut feelings and don't be afraid to make a wrong decision, like you Dad said, you only have to be right 51% of the time! I think one of the fears of many people is to make a prediction and to be wrong in that prediction. I appreciated the fact that you were wrong in your forecasting. Let me explain, it is obvious that you did your due diligence, you named a number of reasons as to why you felt the economy would be reported to be in a better state, nevertheless, you turned out to be incorrect in your prediction, big deal, everyone is probably most of the time. But what I think you have taught the reader is to educate themselves coupled with knowing the opinions of the analyst, or your broker, or your friend, but do your OWN research. And stay true to your own gut feelings and don’t be afraid to make a wrong decision, like you Dad said, you only have to be right 51% of the time!

]]> By: Rodney Fife http://capitalistmarks.com/economic-daydreaming/2010/01/mea-culpa-economic-predictions/comment-page-1#comment-1736 Rodney Fife Fri, 15 Jan 2010 04:00:14 +0000 http://capitalistmarks.com/?p=987#comment-1736 The Economic Picture. The Stock market has humbled many who thought they knew it all. There is no sure science in trying to choose wise investments. The elements of the stock market are not always foreseeable. However the market can still be used effectively to obtain success. You should never totally rely on someone’s advice in choosing investments. In choosing investments, one needs to do their homework. By reading and observing data about a particular investment you remove the emotional sensation to act. I would look at those who have contrary opinions of a company and see if those complaints are valid. Most important point of advice when you are playing the market is to use your head. Economists remain perfectly confident that our great nation will turn around from this recession. The economic situation of the country, from my point of view looks grim. The influences of this view come from multiple sides and are far reaching. These include; government influence in the health insurance industry, proposed tax increases, slower than expected December sales and high unemployment. Government influence of the health care sector will have lasting and harmful damage to small businesses. The small companies who do have health insurance for their employees will most likely not be able to maintain the coverage when the government intervenes. The small businesses will have an additional large expense to overcome. This will act as a large tax increase. There are many tax increase ideas being thrown around the beltway in Washington. To increase taxes just as the economy is showing some life is ill advised. Businesses are running almost on empty. To tax them would be passed on to the consumers who are already feeling the pinch of the recession. December sales were down by 3 percent this year. This does not bode well for our economy. While the picture may be bleak the U.S. Economy is resilient and will rebound if left to its own devices. The recovery will be quicker if Washington does not get in its way. Tax increases and stimulus packages are not the key for growth. Allow the free market to pick the winners and losers. The Economic Picture.
The Stock market has humbled many who thought they knew it all. There is no sure science in trying to choose wise investments. The elements of the stock market are not always foreseeable. However the market can still be used effectively to obtain success. You should never totally rely on someone’s advice in choosing investments. In choosing investments, one needs to do their homework. By reading and observing data about a particular investment you remove the emotional sensation to act. I would look at those who have contrary opinions of a company and see if those complaints are valid. Most important point of advice when you are playing the market is to use your head.
Economists remain perfectly confident that our great nation will turn around from this recession. The economic situation of the country, from my point of view looks grim. The influences of this view come from multiple sides and are far reaching. These include; government influence in the health insurance industry, proposed tax increases, slower than expected December sales and high unemployment.
Government influence of the health care sector will have lasting and harmful damage to small businesses. The small companies who do have health insurance for their employees will most likely not be able to maintain the coverage when the government intervenes. The small businesses will have an additional large expense to overcome. This will act as a large tax increase.
There are many tax increase ideas being thrown around the beltway in Washington. To increase taxes just as the economy is showing some life is ill advised. Businesses are running almost on empty. To tax them would be passed on to the consumers who are already feeling the pinch of the recession. December sales were down by 3 percent this year. This does not bode well for our economy.
While the picture may be bleak the U.S. Economy is resilient and will rebound if left to its own devices. The recovery will be quicker if Washington does not get in its way. Tax increases and stimulus packages are not the key for growth. Allow the free market to pick the winners and losers.

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