CapitalistMarks

Autumn economics: the leaves of confidence fall. HOPE!

Posted on 13. Nov, 2009 by scott in economic daydreaming

In my yard all the leaves have fallen.  There are red, yellow and even a few green leaves decorating my lawn.  I will take the time to clean them up, but first I am determined to go shopping (caveat: my wife usually tells me when I am determined to go shopping).

Apparently I am one of only a few that feels this way.

The preliminary consumer confidence number is out — 66 — lower than 71 expected by the average economist (a frightening prospect since no economist I have ever met is average.)  This 66 is lower than the 70.6 for October.  A decline in consumer confidence is certainly not welcome at this point.

On top of that our trade deficit is widening.  August showed a $30+ billion deficit.  September (the number released today) revealed a deficit of $36+ billion.

Taken together the sum is a worsening economy.  At least on the surface.

Consumers are less willing to shop (or at least buy).  Moreover when they do buy they are buying the cheaper stuff that is imported from countries with steeply lower labor costs . . . mainly China.

But not to fear!

Lately I have ridden a black horse to every blog written (a magnificent steed fed by the faux hay of unemployment).

Today, however, I arrived on a white horse that is thin and appears to be starving . . . but white none-the-less.

Why?

Well, the number are not good true.  I have had to look far and wide to generate even a modicum of positive feelings.  Yet, I have found something to encourage me.

My wife, the perfect model for America’s stay at home mom, has changed from the window shopping mode of the past year to a genuine ‘let’s go shopping today and spend some money’  mode that makes me shiver and shake in my ‘boots.’

Years ago when we were fist married and money was scarce, our dates were mostly ’shopping’ dates.  Lots and lots of shopping but never any buying.  We would drive, or walk. around and pretend to be shopping for things we desired.  There were couches, TV’s, kitchen appliances and much more that were chosen but never bought.  It was fun since we actually believed we were preparing for a more prosperous future.

As you might imagine, that fake shopping mode has been the trend in our household for the last year or so.

Now it has changed.  Judy is ready to spend . . . convinced we can afford to be more generous this year.  It has worked too.  There are Christmas gifts filling a corner of our bedroom and today she wants to find some more.

Why the change?

Great bargains are out there and she wants a bunch of them.

Retailers are lowering prices(and here I mean really lowering) to attract customers and there are some fantastic deals out there!  With Black Friday (when retailers finally get their ‘net’ into the black) weeks away you would be shocked to know how many great prices are lining the aisles.  Customarily the best deals are after ‘Black Friday’ when stores are forced to get rid of everything left so that their inventories are low and they can start ordering next years favorite products.

Not this year.

The standard seems to be 50% off on most end-caps (the valuable display space at the end of each aisle).  We have seen 70% some places.  Even I am getting excited.  Maybe there is a good golf-cart cover out there at a really good price (hint, hint).

My wife is like a kid (or me) in a candy shop: too many good deals to pass up.  “Maybe we should get a little extra for each of the kids and grandkids” she says, “you know, because we were so stingy last year?”  And then the ‘holy grail’ for retailers: “We might even want to buy this for later, even though we don’t need it now.”  Holy Mackeral!

Fact is I agree.  We WILL spend more this year than last (lots more if Jude gets her way).

So the real good news?

I think as reality sinks in (the 2nd great depression failed to appear and is no longer a concern) others will start thinking the same.  The pain of last year is a still vivid memory but the future looks brighter.  Stock markets are way up.  Government spending is starting to have the intended affect and President Obama  is calling for a “jobs’ conference next month.  Unemployment might finally get the attention it deserves.

All of a sudden there is HOPE!

Bottom line?

Get out and spend, don’t go crazy but spend all the same.  Buy two Christmas presents instead of one for those you love and care about.  Buy something for yourself while you are at it.  Take advantage of the best prices on toys, electronics, stylish clothes and golf stuff (any of my family reading this can take notice . . . please).

We, the people, can take the final step to pull ourselves out of this recession.  Spend this Holiday season.  That alone will create jobs, increase confidence, and increase profits at our domestic companies so that they will start hiring again.

Can’t wait for 2010 — only two years away from the end of the world: spend some $$ and go see the blockbuster(?) movie ‘2012′ this weekend . . . and get candy as well as popcorn.

Remember spend what you can and do it wisely but for heavens sake lets do our part and start spending our way out of the recession!

This message is brought to you by all the mothers and grandmothers who can never buy enough ‘cool’ stuff for their kids and grandkids

thanks for the photo to flickrs  allybeag

Tags: bargains, consumer confidence, discounts, hiring, President Obama, retail sales, stock markets, trade deficits