CapitalistMarks

Folks, start running! The economic sale!

Posted on 08. Aug, 2009 by scott in economic daydreaming

The end of the ‘crash of ‘08-’09 is in sight.  The new race is beginning.  Yesterday was the start and it might be that right now is the time to spend some $$ on the greatest economic sale of your lifetime!

To be honest, I was surprised at the unemployment number . . . shocked would be more like it.  Seems all the news was good.  Only 247,000 jobs were lost in July–I was expecting 400,000.  More importantly the unemployment rate went down for the first time in 15 months (from 9.5% to 9.4%).  Even the average hours worked and average pay went up a bit.

So, the Prez. this morning told us the recession is ending (at least he thinks it is soon).  You don’t have to believe him but the numbers don’t lie (oh wait, who puts the numbers together?). 

Frankly I was not expecting this for a few more months.  But, you know what?  The stock market is a leading economic indicator of about 6 months (some think longer) and it turned up with a vengeance in mid-March or roughly 5 months ago. Who’da man?  Obama-man!

The stock markets just keep going up, even with occasional bad news.  This sure looks like a ‘V’ shaped recovery to me.  I’m kicking myself for selling some of my investments in April because I thought this was going to be a “W’ recovery and I could buy them back cheaper (big mistake).  If I had held on to them until yesterday I could have bought a new car even without the taxpayers $4,500 clunker bonus (a KIA anyway on a five year contract at 4%).

I have revised my thoughts on the subject and am now quite comfortable with GDP growth in the third quarter (July, August, September).  In fact, as corporations see the changes coming  they are going to start planning for growth and it is possible, remote, that we just might, maybe, not reach 10% unemployment this year.  That would be great news, like Freddie Mac (the government sponsored mortgage backer) declaring yesterday they had a PROFIT for the last quarter.

Still, telling the 14,000,000 or so folks that want jobs and can’t find them that the recession is just about over is little consolation.  They want jobs YESTERDAY!

So, Mr. President.  Put some real effort into employment until it works and then most everybody will be happy (well, excepting right-wing radicals like Glen Beck and Sarah Palin).  Get the unemployment numbers back to 5 1/2% within two years and I might even vote for you next time around (wait, I’ve sworn on penalty of public service, cleaning freeway right-of-ways, that I will NOT vote for any incumbent — think term limits).

Thank heavens for the stimulus package . . . now spend what is left of it to create jobs and modernize our infrastructure.  You’d better if you even want to dream about getting my vote.

I wish I felt confident enough to put some $$$ into the market and ride this ‘bull’ for a while– but I don’t.  To many things could go wrong (like America’s growing debt and the possibility of mortgage shattering inflation–just to name two).

thanks to flickr’s zhurnaly for the photo

Tags: gdp growth, recession ending, stimulus package, stock markets, unemployment