CapitalistMarks

Bold predicament

Posted on 24. Feb, 2009 by scott in economic daydreaming

Ahh, the pain, the agony, the humiliation.? When will it ever end??

How about soon??

My bold prediction (see blog of feb 13) was intended to document my belief that our markets (stock) had about bottomed out.??I said that the next week would begin a real rise in prices (stock).? But, and here I ask for some lenience — or at least some sympathy, the one week predicition was not as significant as the prediction about where markets would be in a few months or at the end of the year.

Our talking heads in Washington are all we need to stiffle any progress.? All they have to do is open their mouths (the image here should be Pandora’s box) and we all know what comes out.? Nothing good, most of the time.? Our cheer leaders have become ‘boo birds’ and that doesn’t help anything.?

Today we hear that comsumer confidence is at an alltime low.? In the 20’s!? No wonder.? Obama and his minions have nothing good to say . . . ever!? And if we hear it from them (the collective we) then we believe it and boom– down go the markets, real-estate values, paychecks, confidence, emotions . . . .

BUT . . .?I stick with my longer term predictions and I’ll tell you why.? Confidence is at an all time low.? The markets (as measured by the dow and s&p) are at levels we haven’t seen since 1997.? Unemployment is at 7.6% and climbing.? Advertising rates are way off.? Retail sales are plummeting.? Oil is way low compared to a year ago, but gas prices are not so low.??I could go on.? There is NO reason to be positive.

Except.? this is AMERICA.? When things get bad, we get together.? When things are worse, we look around and do what we can to help.?

Take a conversation?I overheard the other day.??A nieghbor who has lost his job has been frustrated in his search for a new one.? During a conversation,?I heard first one other neighbor, and then yet another, offer some encouragement and even some suggestions as to where the unemployed guy could look.? Then, yet another guy joined in and said that his company had an opening and promised to arrange an interview (which by the way he did).? Now, this is no fairy tale with a beautiful princess or handsome prince at the end.? It is just real life in AMERICA.? Turns out the job was only temporary and at a much lower wage than expected . . . but (and here is the great AMERICA part) if the guy did a good job then he would probably get offered a?fulltime thing at a much higher wage.?

AMERICA — where people start humbly, prove themselves and move on to bigger and better things (and get a lot of help from freinds and neighbors along the way).

That is why my bold prediction stands.? Maybe not for last week in the market (‘cuz it was ugly I tell you) but still for the mid and long term.? go back and read it.??I may have been off on the short term by a week or two or so . . . but the rest stands.?

Don’t complain until the longer part has played out.?

I’m still confident.?

I’ve put my money where why words are.?

Come this summer, I’ll be right, just wait and see (if not I’ll be the one looking for help from my neighbors . . . and you know why I’m not worried sick?? I’ll get that help . . . that is what makes us great–that is why confidence will start to improve etc. etc. etc).

Bank on it!?

Just don’t bank with CITI, BofA, Wells Fargo or until the FED gives them some more of my (and your) money . . . that is a blog for another day.

Waiting for your?comments, just not earlier than June for any of the negative type!

Tags: banks, consumer confidence, federal reserve, stock markets