CapitalistMarks

Bye bye ‘08 . . . ‘09 can’t be worse!

Posted on 31. Dec, 2008 by scott in Social commentary, economic daydreaming

With a degree in economics and an MBA I?can’t help but follow the markets (stock not grocery) . . . and ‘08 has been a black hole for investors of almost all persuasions.? I’ve agonized through it.? but there is hope on the horizon.

The market is a discounter of future expectations . . . some say 6 months others as much as 24 months in the future.? I?am of the ?6-12 month persuasion.

Why the hope?

To start, some bad marks for the adminstration this year relative to markets.? Paulson and Bernanke were slow to wake up and slower still on the uptake with regards to how to fix the problem(s).? But the hope is in the broad brush approach.? With trillions thrown at the problems from many governments and confidence at an all time low things can’t get much worse, for long.? Hence the suggestion that it is time to start picking up the pieces and make some $$$.

Not gonna find me making stock picks but?I can tell you that?I really believe 2009 will be a ‘rocker’ in the market.?

Here are some of the reasons why.?1– much lower oil prices that are being followed (at an ever quickening pace) by? (2) — lower commodity prices (think corn, wheat, steel, chicken, eggs — or which ever comes first) and a whole bunch more.? Then (3) confidence will rise and Madoff will get what is coming to him.?

Spring will bring warm temps and some really good opportunities . . . entreprenuers need to think ahead and be prepared.? America is about to take the lead again!!? The new adminstration will (4) work at?making friends, not enemies, and the world will take notice.? ‘Buy American’ will become vogue again.

You can hold my feet to the fire on this but here is what I predict for 2009.? The dow will reach 12,000 at some point, the nasdaq 2400, and the s&p 1,200.? There is a lot of pent up demand for things people don’t have the confidence to buy now . . . but they will within 6 months of Obama taking office.? I?didn’t vote for him (and not Mccain either) ?but change is usually good and?BHO gives the impression of intelligence and concern (something woefully missing for the last 8 years).

Sure we face a grundle of problems but capitalism has been on hold for over a year and in the toilet for the last 6 months.? It will rise again with a vengeance as Chavez and Putin and that knucklehead in Iran realize they bet on the? twice losing horse of socialism and complete gov’t control (and of course perpetualy high oil prices).?

Specific details don’t tell the whole story this early in the game.? But, come back to me in a year and chew me a new one if I’m wrong.?? Still,?don’t bet the farm on it for a few months.? ‘09 is going to be interesting, historical and fun (‘08 was all of that except?the fun part–unless you are a masochist).

This seems a serious and seriously imprudent direction to predict, but?I mean it all.? And don’t think?I lack a sense of humor . . . heck?I voted for bush in ‘00 . . . what’s funnier than that?

As my daughter is fond of saying, “whatever!”?

Yet, be wise, be funny, be cautious, be optimistic and be yourself, then you are all but? guaranteed to have a?GREAT 2009!!!

thanks to *clairity* at flikr for the photo

Tags: 2009, bernanke, paulson