Please take this break as an opportunity to visit some of the many blogs I have posted in the past.  They all continue to be relevant today.  Comment if you like, I will check back every once in a while.

God Bless our great country — and my wife.

Scott

I can’t imagine any other reason for it.

Man, aren’t we great though?

A nation that allows all sorts of behavior in public (dare I admit that sometimes we even encourage it?), all kids of crazy dress (my opinion — but then who am I to judge styles?), all kinds of religious belief (without judging for the most part — a special caveat here for Tom Cruise), all kinds of decorating on automobiles that drive our highways (remember the fur covered ‘dogmobile?), shoes that make you wonder why we ever invented the dern things . . .  and on and on.

But, we are also a nation that forgives a guy like Tiger Woods who egregiously violated marriage oaths and common sense.  The crowd at the Masters has followed him loyally and encouragingly — well he did offer a genuine (it seemed to me) apology before the competition started.

At the same time we welcome a new Masters hero (for this year)  and applaud the success of Phil Mickelson, because he is a great golfer (the best this day) and a dad who loves his wife and family so much they spent the week there with him.

Yep, we can appreciate at the same time that we forgive.

And that is a good thing.

We forgave the Germans for WWII (thank heavens since I married one), and the Japanese for the same war ( thanks for the Toyatas and Hondas that I have bought over the years and continue to drive).

And we will forgive the Iraqies and the Afghans if we can ever finish our wars there and let them prove to the world how great their culture is.

In fact this propensity to forgive is one of the greatest things about our country . . . we are so varied and diverse that we find it easy to forgive just about anyone and any nation for just about anything.  Pretty quick too.

Each time we do it the world opens up, gets more forgiving, allows greater acceptance and follows our example.

In short the whole dang place gets better.

I hope, and believe,  that we will never change.  Good thing too.

Just a year ago the world (well at least the Chinese and Russians — I don’t count Iran, Venezuela or Cuba) were yelling that the American Economic model of free-market capitalism was dead.  Boy were they ever wrong.  Our system works and worked — adjustments were made, changes were accepted and now we are on another tear that I hope will soon employ everyone that really wants a job (another neighbor got off unemployment this week!).

Man aren’t we great?

Your darn tootin’ we are!!

thanks to flickr’s johntraynor for the photo

Like we all want to root for Afghanistan to rise up out of the poverty and religious intolerance that has made it one of the poorest nations in the world . . . war torn for decades, rife with uneducated Mullahs (except in their perverted view of the Qu’ran) who poison the minds and wills of generations of young people, destroyed by Russia’s arrogance, and now occupied by America and it’s allies in a seemingly perpetual war against terrorism and Al Quieda.

Our government has tens of thousands of troops in this God-forbidden, mountain bound’ land-locked and insular land.  We have spent hundreds of billions of $$ trying to rid the country of wicked and ignorant men and women who care nothing for the ‘nation’ we are trying to create for them.  Our efforts to educate the people (mostly the young) have met with resistance and killing.  Attempts to free women from the bondage of poorly interpreted religious traditions resulted in further hatred and even torture.

And yet, our government (with support of a majority of citizens) has labored on.  Like other battles for the ‘underdog’ Americans stand willing to sacrifice for the ‘greater good.’

The blood of hundreds of our young men and women has been spilt on the dusty plains and rocky ranges of the faraway country.  Enormous amounts of equipment, supplies, food, and other necessities have been shipped there.

And why?

We think we know and so struggle on, but . . . Karzai?

Karzai has assumed that it has all been for him and his ill-conceived, and even more ill-functioning government.  Bribery is a way of life there.  Fraud and abuse of the $$billions we send there result in little being dribbled down to the people as corruption at the highest, and all, levels are commonplace.

Karzai and his cronies line their pockets and play at governing but the Afghan people see no improvement.  In fact most reports say they  either fear or hate the bureaucrats and police.  There are even rumors of government alliances, both political and financial, with some of the Taliban.

This of course has been hard to stomach.  I have not trusted Hamid Karzai from the first day I saw him on TV costumed in his pretentious green robes and sillywool ‘crown.’  There was something inherently dishonest in the was he spoke . . .  the droll of his pleas for peace and money.  I have been a pretty good judge of character in my life . . . it has helped a lot . . . and I judged him bad from day one.

The stated strategy has been that we must support the ‘nation building’ of a country that has rejected a central government for generations.  All so that the nooks and crannies within its borders will not become hiding places for terrorists bent on destroying all western and Christian forms of life.  The process has been harrowing and dangerous.  Some of our allies have packed up and left . . . deeming the goal to be unachievable.

Yet, America presses on under the leadership of our own new President.  Hoping that eventually Afghanistan will thrive under a legitimate and self-sustaining democratic government.  I can only say dream on.

Both President Bush and President Obama have voiced support for the ‘elected’ leader of the land:  Hamid Karzai.  I say ‘elected’ because the most recent elections were so rife with fraud that no President should have been elected.  Yet Karzai prevailed . . . and Obama has said that ‘the people’ of Afghanistan have spoken.

Let me tell it like it is:  Karzai is in power in Afganistan only because America allows him to be.  Perhaps this administration considers him the lesser of two evils (or three or four for that matter).  But, this support is misguided and wrong.

Karzai is not in control of his nation.  He is even less in power. The United States military, along with our few remaining allies, is in control and has the power, such as it is.

Yet this administration continues the charade of Karzai’s puppet government.  We allow him to parade around the world as if he was a genuine leader worthy of international acclaim.  He is the titular head of a ragtag army and national police force . . . yet those very forces are trained and funded with our tax dollars.  There is no real government in Afghanistan.

Talk about a balanced budget– heck Afghanistan’s government has revenues of only $1 billion and spends over $3 billion.  About the same as a mid-sized city in Montana.  Are you kidding me?  Karzai has been bad for his own people and he has been bad for us . . . more so every day it seems.

Now, Karzai has really crossed the line.

Last week he complained of ‘international’ interference in the most recent election (international can only mean U.S. since we dominate the foreign presence there).  The White House took that with unexpected resilience that came across as far too understanding.

Then, a few days later, in a final strike at the hand that feeds him, Karzai said that if foreign interference continued the Taliban would be legitimized and he might even join them.  What the heck would he do without ‘foreign’ interference?  He would be nothing but another penniless  ’foreigner’ strolling along Paris streets.  Is this guy crazy?  A Quisling?  Traitor, enemy, crook?

The audacity of this idiot is incredible.

And it must not be allowed to continue.

It is time for Obama to follow the lessons learned after WWII in Germany and Japan.  Our military must take over the entire government process until the people of the country are distanced enough from Karzai’s puppet and illegitimate rule to see that self-governance can and will work.

This will take years.  But we must do it.  We simply cannot allow Afghanistan to collapse again like it did when the Russkies abandoned it.

America and our allies must be in control of everything that goes on in Afghanistan.  We have to control the police, the army, the bureaucrats, transportation, licensing . . . the entire government.  We have to be there to manage our $$Billions and save our soldiers lives.  We can’t leave any decision that involves the Afghans or our soldiers to be left up to others — especially not someone like Karzai who only came to Afghanistan after the successful ‘invasion.’  We have to make sure the people in every city and throughout the country have peace, freedom, education, roads, dams, schools, hospitals, and everything else it takes them to enter, at least, the 20th century.

It is clear that this will never happen with Karzai or anyone else like him.  Leadership can’t just be assumed.  It has to be learned and earned and America must be the teacher here.  Perhaps there is a young man (or woman) somewhere in Afghanistan who can, someday,  rise to leadership . . . and we must provide the avenue for him (or her) to do so.

It will be a huge commitment (perhaps along the lines of post-war Germany or Japan, maybe even South Korea) and it will take years, not months.  Forget the pretense of Karzai’s leadership and take control.  Out of the existing mess, one day,  pride and greatness can rise. jJust not now.  Just not Karzai.

That much is as clear as anything in this troubled world.

I call on President Obama to recognize that Karzai is NOT a legitimate leader and has neither the qualifications nor the honor to function as President of Afghanistan.  Appoint an interim ‘Governor’ and assume complete leadership.

Give the Afghan people a chance–and some time.

thanks to flickr’s blatantnews.com for the photo

China is the largest auto maker in the world now (bypassing America about 10 years sooner than expected), along with that they are also the largest steel maker.  I don’t have the actual figures but I would also bet they are the world’s largest TV maker — I couldn’t find a single non-Chinese made TV at Costco or Best Buy.

There is more.  In December China imported a record amount of crude oil, and iron ore shipments were the second highest ever.

China  continues to hold the largest amount of foreign debt at roughly $2 trillion (of which about $700 billion is U.S. government debt–more on that later).

It seems clear that China will soon become (if not already) the major force in natural resource markets world-wide.

Then there was the announcement that China is now the largest exporter in the world, by-passing Germany (the leader for decades until now) with exports of $1.2 trillion.

But, what was most surprising was the raw size of increases achieved by this highly regulated economy.  The Delta or rate of change was high enough to wake up a few tired old ‘free market’ economists.

Exports from China bounded forward by nearly 18% in December,  4 times the expected rate, and this ended a 13 month streak of year-on-year decreases.

Imports to China grew by an incredible 55.9% in December and were nearly double the expected Growth.  This increase demonstrates that China is continuing to grow its ’spending’ middle-class and further stockpile raw-materials and industrial equipment at prices that are very low due to the continuing recession in the developed world (I really hate that differentiation).

China is now the third biggest economy behind the United States and Japan (which it will likely pass soon).  Though this is impressive, with its 1.3 billion population, China continues to be one of the world’s poorest countries and this bears keeping in mind as we marvel at their growth.

Rather amazing all this, given where China was just 15-20 years ago (believe me I know . . . I spent a lot of time there at that time).  However, as the wakeup continues, this phenomenal growth should drive some painful but real  political and economic stakes into the leaders at the top of those aforementioned developed countries (U.S., Euro zone, Japan).

There is some more statistics to be wary of too.  South Korean exports grew at a 47% clip in December and Taiwan posted 34% growth.  Both of these countries are major trading partners with China and considered under their ’sphere of influence’.   Then there is the fact that Taiwan is likely to become a ‘Hong Kong’ style part of China in the foreseeable future.

It is pretty clear where global leadership is right now.

Chinese political, economic and monetary influence is second to only our own at this time . . . and it is growing while the U.S.’s is in decline.  This despite President Obama’s effort to represent a kinder and gentler United States of America.

All of this translates into some pretty predictable Macro implications.

No longer will the U.S. control its own economic zone in our hemisphere because China, with its thirst for raw materials and huge Capital surplus, is investing heavily in South America.

No longer will Europe be the primary beneficiary of Africa’s enormous resources because China again is investing $ billions top secure its ’supply’ of necessary raw materials.

So, what happens in another 5 or 10 years?  Where are we going to buy what we need?  Will China end up selling ‘us’ resources obtained from other countries at a stiff markup?

While the developed nations are losing GDP and going  through the worst recession in history (not a depression yet),  China and its nearby partners are actually growing in both GDP and global  influence.

The bully part?

Heck that’s easy.

Chinese leaders are already taking President Obama to task due to their perceived ‘carrying’ risk of American debt — can you blame them with our deficit?

Trade restrictions that have been proposed (or already announced) against China are not viable economically and become potential arrows in the Chinese arsenal that could serve to limit developed nation imports (which ‘we’ need to grow out of this danggum recession).

China seems to be more  in control of  important world-wide issues than we are.  This excludes military might — but they are catching up as they plan their own aircraft carriers and large aircraft manufacturing and assembly infrastructure.

Think about that.

They have a viable space program, they have a large nuclear arsenal and the missile capability to ‘deposit’ warheads anywhere on earth.  They buy enormous quantities of natural resources from countries that really, really need to sell them.  China does not formally allow foreign investment in state-run enterprises or even private ones.  But, they are on the hunt to buy up massive amounts of other countries public and private assets while they have excess cash.

This isn’t fair and it isn’t right.  No wonder Australia wouldn’t let them take over Rio Tinto — the worlds largest mining company.  And thanks heavens for that!

China (or their secretive government) is very close to being in control of the World’s economy.  That needs to be taken seriously.

The real problem is that they know exactly how important and powerful they are in the global environment right now.  No dummies, these Communist leaders are starting to stretch their legs — on every continent but Greenland.

Bottom line:  China has a whole lot more clout than most people recognize.

President Obama, Merkel, Sarkozy and Prime Minister Brown (among others) had better start developing a plan where they  combine and  ‘unite’ all of their  economic and political clout so that the ‘free world’ stays in place to trump any Chinese moves.

Crap, and we thought the Middle-East was the center of our biggest problems — not anymore it seems to me.  If you have any ideas then let me know and pass them on to the White House too!

thanks to flickr’s jervetson for the photo

Had we judged the past year on the first quarter alone (at least in terms of stock markets) it was the worst of years.  Had we judged it in terms of million of jobs lost — right up and through November  then it was the worst year ever.  Had we judged it in terms of political progress for the country and the two major parties then it was horrible.  The government’s response to H1N1?  Incompetent.  The first year for our new President — well, judgement is still out on that one.

But, there is much good to remember about 2009.

From the March lows of the stock market until yesterday the S&P has roared back with an impressive 65% increase (the biggest since the Depression).  And even with the terrible first quarter the S&P is up 23.5% for the year — best in the last 6 years.  Job losses are declining rapidly now and will probably start impressive numbers on the upside as early as . . . well, last month.

As for politics we still have the same old knuckleheaded incumbents running our Congress . . . but there is strong evidence that the average joe and josephine are getting fed up so change is in the air.  Then there is H1N1 — maybe our government learned from their awful response (besides it turned out not to be as contagious or as dangerous as originally thought).

More to the point though is an assessment of the past decade.  Surely 2000 to 2009 is at the top of anyone’s list of horrible decades.  One to forget.  The worst I can remember.

The Bush years, with George’s top down ‘never-saw-a-war-he-wouldn’t-fight’  leadership will probably go down as one of the worst Presidential terms ever.  New Orleans will stand as evidence of his unsympathetic style for a hundred years.  Iraq never made sense and American lives are still being sacrificed there.  Afghanistan, the unwillable war, hangs with continuing pallor 8 years after its start.

Stock markets?  Shoot, in the last 10 years the DOW is down10%, the S&P is down 22% and the NASDAQ is down 42%!  That is the first time EVER that these indices have lost money (negative returns) over a single decade.  Fact is, it is the first time EVER that investment in stocks proved to be worse than putting all your money is savings accounts or even under the mattress!

The political side of things in the past decade were dominated by Bush and the republican’s turn from their basic principles to ‘camouflage-the-spending’ as our national debt doubled and then doubled again.  We now owe $12 trillion.

The scary thing is that democrats are now running things with no oversight.  Spending our way out of the recession was a great short-term cure but watch out when the bills come due — tax and spend democrats are in control (and hapless republicans stand on the sidelines griping as they ignore their own responsibilities).

Unemployment rates more than doubled in this last decade from 4% to 10%.  The number of unemployed went from less than 6,000,000 to a record of more than 20,000,000 people who collected unemployment in 2009.

Health insurance costs (here I am just using my own personal insurance costs with the same company I have been paying to insure me for the last 25 years) have gone up by about 400% — I am now paying in excess of $21,000 per year for coverage with a $1,000 deductible and $4,000 per person out of pocket limit.  Who can afford that?  We need health insurance reform folks.

I could go on but it is too depressing.

So let me shine light on the future.

A new decade starts today.  It can’t be any worse that the last decade  and I fully expect it to be a lot better . . . great in fact. There will be opportunities galore for the creative entrepreneur, more jobs for the unemployed, incredible new advancements in energy, technology, medicine, and so many other fields (some that we don’t even know about today).

Americans are a ‘dig-ourselves-out-of-the-hole’ people.  More than any other people in the world.  Sure, we complain a lot, its part of our system.  But we don’t sit and fret.  We get out and do something.  We improve our lives and have every incentive and opportunity to do it.

Americans have stepped up time after time in the past 200+ years.  We will do it again now.

I can’t wait to see what our country and its people will look like in 10 more years.  What the World will look like.

America will be leading just like it has in the past.

So, forget the past decade.  Turn the page and get on with it.

The ‘teens’ are going to be a great decade for America and for the World.

Count on it!

Thanks to flickr’s jwebb202 for the photo

It passed early this morning.  The vote?  60-39.  No republicans voted for the plan.  Every single Democrat voted for it.

Jeeze Louise!  When will the partisan politics end?  When will the mantra of ‘what is good for the country’ replace the partisan one of ‘what is good for my re-election?’

I wish I could tell you the details of the democrats plans (the one that passed the House and the one that passed the Senate).  But I can’t.  Because I don’t have the time to read four or five thousand pages.  And you know what?  That goes for most of our Senators and Congressmen either (they have only read the parts they drafted).

Are the two bills that must now be merged before final passage any good?  Who really knows.

But this much is clear.  There was no real effort on the part of democrats to engage republicans so that the bills would be widely acceptable.  Further, there was no real effort by the republicans to seek such engagement and get strategies important to them in the bills.

Consequently these bills (as drafted) do nothing to limit frivolous medical lawsuits, nothing to effectively lower the cost of medications (Americans pay twice as much as other countries in some cases), do little to stop the incredible growth of health care costs,  do little to extend coverage to all Americans (about 25 million people are left out in the cold), do little to limit the extravagant benefits Congress has, and leave many other questions unanswered as well.

These draft bills are NOT what President Obama promised.  They are partisan and offensive to most knowledgeable Americans.

Why does onlyNebraska get added medicare costs payed by the government (at the expense of citizens of all other states)?  As a bonus thrown in to get Nebraska’s vote, that’s why!

And there are other unfair and ‘porkified’ benefits thrown in as well simply to get votes that otherwise would not be there.

I don’t know what the final bill will look like and I am not really interested in the details yet.

It is enough to know that this bill was cobbled together by democrats so that democrats will get re-elected.  Another case of incumbent politics.  It is enough to know that this bill was cobbled together without any republican help so that those republicans could oppose, oppose and oppose — to help them get re-elected.

How does Congress work?  Whatever it takes to get re-elected and NOT what it takes to make America a better place for our 300 million citizens.

Harry Reid should be ashamed.  Nancy Pelosi should be ashamed.  President Obama should be ashamed.  The democrats should be ashamed and the republicans too!

It seems that costs of the final bill will be much higher than the benefits.  This bill alone (when finally written and passed) could add billions of $$ to our already impossibly high deficit.  It has no hope of being anything but an economic disaster.

The problem is that it will take years to prove itself one way or the other.  By then it will be forgotten by the voters and new issues will arise that force the majority party to act selfishly  to get re-elected.  The minority party will act just as selfishly to fight anything new . . . not because it is the right thing to do but because acting selfishly will help get them re-elected.

This partisan approach to running our government must end.

America is NOT the place for life long, professional politicians.   The only way to make this happen is with term limits.  America is no place for entitled political leaders.  America is no place for decisions to be made based on re-election probabilities. The only way to make this happen is with term limits.

America should be the country where normal citizens take four or eight years off of their regular life to serve the country as best they can and then return to earning a living the old fashioned way (and with no life-long benefits or retirement for their limited service).

Term limits!

But, incumbents will NEVER vote for term limits.  So we must.  Do NOT vote for any incumbents anymore.  No more than one term for anyone.  When politicians at EVERY level get the message and vote in laws regarding term limits then we can start voting our conscience again.

Until then?  No more ridiculous one party bills.

Good-bye incumbents!!

Ignore this message at your own peril.

thanks to flickr’s joe beone for the photo

It is not right to consider China a developing nation in 2009 and beyond.

This was the case when I first started doing business there. An example from the past.

Once, on my first morning in Ningbo, China, I got up early (jet lag can be a real *&@%) and found that there was no electricity and no water.  I walked down to the front desk and was told that electricity and water were always turned off between 10pm and 7am.  Now, that was a developing nation.  But it was also twenty years ago and times have changed.

Chinese leaders love to play on their ‘developing nation’ status.  Gives them credibility for all the social/political and economic decisions they make without any real debate.   You can’t say twenty-first century politics are involved because all critical decisions are made at the top by leaders who have no higher authority (the people) to worry about.  That’s the beauty, if you care to call it that, of Communism in its Chinese form.  Decisions are easily made, quickly implemented and subject the decision makers to few if any consequences.  But those decisions often violate human rights and economic fairness.

It works for them, but because of generations of communist policy the Chinese leaders can’t effectively relate to America or Americans.  And we don’t really understand them all the time.

For example, once I was met with a high-ranking local Communist party official (with his cadre of about 10 ‘assistants’) to discuss ‘terms’ for making my patented products in their fine city.  Turns out he was also was the President of the local factory that wanted to make our products for us (where me met).   This was a dingy dickensonion kind of place that just didn’t feel right to me.  No heat at all in the conference room of the executive building.  Nor was there any heat provided on the factory floor.  And can’t even bring myself to describe the toilet facilities.

Boy was I naive, I learned later that the factory was owned and operated by the Red Army.  It ‘employed’ people who were housed in dorms on site (8 or ten to a room), worked 12-14 hour days seven days a week and apparently never left.  The big iron gate was always closed and guarded and the ten foot high brick fence around the factory and related property was topped with a three foot section of barbed wire that would have scared away Brer Rabbit).  Draw your own conclusions but mine was all about ‘forced’ labor.  No wonder they could offer prices that were a fraction of those in Taiwan or Hong Kong.  And the profits went to the military, no doubt.

This local leader began by joking that if America believed China was abusing its people then we should let more of them emigrate to California (a place most Chinese think is like heaven).  He suggested we start with two or three hundred, then he smiled and added million.  Three hundred million?  Yes, he replied.  Then he added that they wouldn’t even be missed in China.

Boy did that give me some perspective.

The factory’s idea of quality control was something that barely worked.  Mine of course was something that worked well, was made of really good raw materials and looked real good.

We never could get together.

I hope this is giving you a sense of the enormous divide that separates our two nations . . . philosophically, economically, politically and socially.

Yet, in spite of all the immense differences China should NOT be considered a developing nation and should NOT be given the free rein developed nations allow those who are disadvantaged.

China must be held socially accountable — and this goes double for economic and military issues.

Their refusal to float the Renminbi (the ‘peoples’ money’) or Yuan (the name of the currency denomination that is equivalent to our dollar) provides an unfair trading advantage.  It increases their exports (because good are cheaper) and decreases their imports (‘cuz our goods are more expensive) thus contributing to the incredible trade imbalance between China and America (think in the neighborhood of half a $trillion per year–or one good Obama stimulus package).

China’s defense of such unfair practice?  “Oh, but we are a developing nation.  It is necessary for us to level the field.”

Tiresome to our diplomats.

How does one measure developed and developing nations anyway?  Putting the gross economic issues aside (average wages, for example), how about the availability of consumer products and especially luxury items.  Think cars, cell-phones, TV’s, computers and such.  This measure sure reflects reality in places that lack such (we consider) amenities.

And so the news last week that China has passed the United States as the biggest market for cars.  Chinese sales are expected to be 12.7 million in 2009, while U.S. sales are forecast at 10.3 million.  Oh, and by the way the Chinese total is an increase of 44% over the previous year!!  Cell phones?  China has more in use.  Computers?  China.  Students in technical Universities?  China.  Miles of high-speed rail?  China (by thousands of miles).

But this car deal is big.  Think of the implications to fuel usage, the cost of oil, pollution, green house gases, steel and other raw material costs.  Huge, baby!  And then there are the jobs, factories and suppliers to make all that possible.  Wow!

Developing nation?  Baloney.  China’s military power is second only to ours.  China’s technology is third to the U.S. and Russia.  China’s population is first (4 times the U.S.’s).  China’s economy is first right now in every meaningful way, with near double digit growth and holdings of  more than $2 trillion of other nations currencies (yes they have a surplus — something other ‘developed’ nations can only dream of right now).

The infamous G7(or is nearly irrelevant now (the largest economies in the world — i.e. Global 7).  The real decisions are at the G2 level and those two are China and the U.S.  No other nation is really close.

Developing nation?  Baloney.  We, and the rest of the world have to stop even thinking about China as a developing nation — they are not.

China has put men into space, has nuclear weapons and the delivery systems to drop them anywhere in the world, a military (in terms of soldiers) the size of Russia and the U.S. combined.

Drop the pretext.  The four or five  most developed nations in the world today include China in just about everybody’’s reckoning.

China has to be taken seriously, held to developed nation accountability and treated as the most powerful ‘partner’ of the United States (remember Obama doesn’t want to think in terms of enemies or friends — not such a bad idea really).

Oh, and by the way, Russia is devolving under Putin (and his puppet Medvedev).  The first of what I will call undeveloping nations (although Cuba probably sets the standard there).  I don’t think they want to be anybody’s ‘partner’ and that egoistic and Machiavellian approach is part of their problem.

Thanks for the photo to flickr’s francisodiez

What do you do when the last hero falls at the same time?  Achilles heel exposed, struck by arrows of recklessness, selfishness and downright stupidity.  Guess we are in a long-term moral recession too.

I never intended to write about Tiger Woods here.  Didn’t seem right, though there was obviously reason enough given that his annual take is equal to the GDP of several small countries.

Makes it all okay.

Weeks after Tiger’s accident and well into the international media frenzy that followed, it is clear that this one individual’s failings are significant — important even — socially, politically and economically.  After all he is probably the most important and most famous person in the world:  the biggest sports star, the highest paid (winnings) athlete, the most important sports marketing figure, the first billion $$ star, the highest paid endorser, the handsome, lithe, fit, value conscious person that every guy wanted to be and every gal wanted to know.  No matter the cost.

Therein lies the problem.  Economics rule again–even in sports.  Sure banks can be too big to fail, GM has too many employees to let them all go, Senators and Congressmen too secure to worry about making mistakes . . .  I could go on but you have seen it all in the last few years.  Sins, errors in judgment, flat out lies and stealing . . . the whole rotten bag of selfishness and arrogance by people in high places.

Was the media justified in making this dreadful story #1 in the midst of the all-important Christmas season?

Of course. Again, its all about the money folks.

This kind of lurid stuff sells.  It draws viewers and listeners.  Besides, the media is responsible for who Tiger has become . . . it is only right they they take off on him when he fails so miserably.  They should be more harsh if anything.  What he did is not only wrong, it is immoral and indecent.  And everyone deserves to know what their once beloved hero is really like.

And baloney to the puritanical talking heads who bluster in defense of his privacy.  Tiger Woods life is NOT and has NOT been a private family matter — not now, not ten years ago when his star was rising and not in ten years when he hopefully turns himself around.  He allowed the media and the public to idolize him.  All the time hiding his true nature.

Crap, I hate this, but we have the right to know what kind of guy is supporting the products we buy because of his endorsement (remember the classic ‘be like Mike?’).  Might not have been the case if Tiger had strayed just once in an awful error of judgment and temptation.  But time after time after time?  Dang it, no!  He should pay the price — privately and publicly.  We certainly paid more for the products he endorsed . . . just because of the cost of such endorsement.

Bang!

And thus, my last real hero falls.  Not with one vicious shot to the heel but with a thousand tiny slices by his own hand.  Words of his own making.  Acts of his own doing.

Dishonesty directed at, not only his precious wife and children (to say nothing of his adoring mother and worshipful deceased father), but also to the millions of sports fans who watched his every magnificent swing–his masterful putts–his toothy grin at each new victory — his humble acknowledgments of God-given skills developed by hard and honest effort.  All are trivial now it seems.

Am I sad.  Heck, yes.  But also angry, frustrated, disappointed, shocked and filled with disbelief.  Where do I look now for someone to challenge me to be better?

Stunned is how I felt at first.

You might of well have told me that my 92 year old dad had left my 91 year old mom for a teen idol.  I wouldn’t have believed that either.

But this present drama is far too true (as to Tiger that is –  my dad ever had eyes only for my mom) . . . by his own admission now and through the numerous adulterous women he has taken advantage of.  Oh, how I felt betrayed . . . imagine Elin (his loyal Swedish wife).

And so I decided to vent.

But here?  On this political/economic/social blog?  Of course.

Tiger’s fall is indicative of the times. Cheating athletes, referees who lie, elected officials with NO morals, CEO’s making million that steal millions more–greed, selfishness and lust seem to be the traits of choice today.  All over the news, promoted on TV programs during the ‘family hour’, encouraged by Hollywood . . . we can’t seem to avoid it.  Our fault as much as any . . . we let it into our homes, into the minds of our easily influenced children.

And it is wrong!  On every level.  Whether you are Christian, Muslim, Jew, Buddhist, Hindu or whatever.  Integrity is universal . . . except that it isn’t.

Hide the women and children?  Yeah, seems like the Vikings and Visigoths control everything except our homes (and they are breaking the walls down there as we speak).

Where do we find heroes?  People we look up to, revere, respect and love?  People who use and endorse products that make us feel better and think we will perform or look better if we use them?  People we want to emulate?

And what about the importance of family, honesty and commitment, the marriage contract?

Is the example now just one of entitlement?  That the rich and powerful can do no wrong?  Get away with anything?

If we had half a brain we would put a stop to it right now.

Consider.

First there were Governors, then Congressmen (I can’t think offhand of any congresswomen — and doesn’t that speak volumes in itself?), then Senators, then a President, then the greatest Golfer ever.  Shoot, none of them have paid a real price for their infidelity and dishonesty.  How the heck can we keep electing folk like that?  Keep revering bums we wouldn’t bring home to mom?   How can we expect them to stop if a price is not demanded for their actions?

We should not support any of  them until they have changed and paid a fair price to society.  We just can’t keep letting them off with a slap on the wrist and a wry smile of acknowledgment.

But Tiger Woods?  The untouchable, unflappable magician of golf?

How could you?

Might as well plan on the big “W” recession now. Retails sales should crash in the near future (if we do what we all should).

I will NEVER use Nike products again.  I will NEVER buy Gatorade.  I will NEVER use Gillette products, of course I can’t afford a Tag Huer watch, or a new Buick but the same goes for every other product that pay him now.

Think.  $100,000,000 of endorsement contracts each year.

Say that generates at least $100,000,000,000 in sales.

If we all stop supporting those companies then Tiger may not only be the most high profile intimacy addict in history but also the first person to be individually responsible for a new recession.  And it would be worth it because we know  Obama and the democrats would come out with a ‘third’ stimulus and save us all

Of course that doesn’t have to be the case.  All those companies could drop him like a hot potato and we could all go back to their products with our heads held high.  But it hasn’t happened yet.

Tiger is responsible

Just no excuse.  His father is moaning in his grave.  Heck, I oughta know about that.  I grew up in a military family.  My dad was a ramrod straight, larger than life Lt. Col. too.  My mom was a beautiful model.  They both encouraged me and helped me right up until today.  Once I failed them bad.  Real bad.  It hurt me more to see them injured by my stupidity than the suffering I was going through personally.

If Tiger is any kind of man at all he will be feeling the same.

And there is more than that.  I have  a drop-dead beautiful wife.  Four super smart kids who could win Jeopardy, Survivor or The Amazing Race and whose spouses make them even better.  And the baker’s dozen grandkids?  Every one of them potential Nobel prize winners and NBA or LPGA players . . . not too mention they all got their grandma’s looks.  I have hurt them in the past too.  They know it and I do too.  But I didn’t drag the process on for weeks and months.  Repented of my selfishness and started out with a new slate.  No more buying a Motor-home when my wife is at girl’s camp.  No more buying Big Screen TV’s for the BYU-UTAH game while my kids needed ski lessons.  No sirree.  Learn and go forward.

One can only hope that Tiger is going through the same self evaluation I did.  Of course his actions were more egregious.  That whole time after time after time thing just resonates here.  But change is possible, repentance works (if he is religious), and a new commitment to his wife and family as well as his fans is due and would be a huge step in the right direction.

I am sick of this.  I mean really sick too.  My stomach hurts.  My head aches.  I have no real heroes left (outside of my Dad and Mom).

But you know what.  I wasn’t about to give up.

Unlike Tiger I stepped up and and worked at it.  Searched my memory banks.  Scoured the sports pages and I found an old hero that is going to make a comeback for me (and I hope you can find one too).  I chose Kurt Warner of the Arizona Cardinal.  Great quarter-back.  Super guy.  Loving father and husband.  Committed to family and team.  Charitable, honest and true.  If you aren’t familiar you should do a surch on him and read it.

Ah, thanks heavens.  Life doesn’t end here.  Now I can cheer for the Cardinals all the way to the Super-bowl.  I don’t think this 38 year old Warner guy will disappoint — win or lose he’s a stand-up guy.

So, I move on.

I won’t say goodbye Tiger.  Just so long.  Because I hope you make it back.

But until you do there will be a void and I will stick to my guns.

Boy I hope Hansen makes good juices, that Callaway makes good clubs and balls, that Norelco shavers are as good as they say — my life has changed right along with Tigers but you know what?  If those other products helped make him what he is today, then I want nothing to do with any of them!

Sorry this has been so long and rambling . . . but I just lost a hero.  What’s a guy to do?  BUY TIGER-FREE GOODS!

P.S.:  after drafting this post I found out Accenture dropped Tiger — I’m proud of them (especially since my formative years were spent with their oft maligned predecessor Andersen Consulting).

thanks to keith allison at flickr for the photo

Good thing too.

But, what is the deal here, is Obama chanelling the Gipper?  Has he been studying Reaqan’s successes in his spare time?  Wouldn’t that be cool?

On Tuesday, when the President began to lay out his new employment strategy I thought I was listening to the President Ronald Reagan.

You probably did too (if you are old enough to remember or have read about his economic policies).

Consider that Obama and his team are contemplating reducing employment taxes, providing direct incentives for new hiring, eliminating capital gains tax (one year only — but hey that is a supply side beginning) on new small business spending, federal guarantees of small business loans and ressurrecting the Gipper himself to coordinate the program.  Okay, that last was just for fun because everyone knows that Obama can’t to that . . . he is not a God as some (the Nobel Committee among them) think!

This is all good classical supply side stuff . . . not enough to satisfy Reagan’s good buddy Arthur Laffer(who posited that lower tax rates could increases tax revenues) . . . but a start.

I wish there was some direct government hiring instead of extending unemployment benefits (which adds to costs with nothing in return).  Heck if we are going to pay the unemployed for a year or more to not work then lets get them doing something productive  (see earlier post).

This is pretty cool stuff coming from a new President who has proved to be much further left than many voters thought he would be. And I am further encouraged he will seek real change in D.C.

Along with this he proposes increased federal spending for highways, bridges and stuff.  A further improvement in my opinion (again see earlier).

Now the bad part . . . the Obama team are talking even more about spending our way out of this  crisis.  Watch out deficits the dems are at it again!

But let’s focus on the good stuff . . . helping small business is a great start (and maybe enough to jump-start employment).  Small business are the real engine of growth in America–where the real ingenious stuff happens, where innovation hits the tar of the growth road.  Two thirds or workers in America are putting forth the good effort with small businesses . . . hence the best place to expand.

My bottom line:  I like this.  If implemented quickly this can be a great impetus to the economy.  Further such a quick implementation would likely raise confidence and increase consumer spending.  All good things.

I am hopeful just as long as the Republicans are supportive of the good stuff and don’t fight all change just for partisan political reasons.

Now, I would like you to remember this important point:

The best, quickest and most permanent way to improve governance in the United States of America is with strict term limits.  If our legislatures won’t implement this then we, the people, can.  Just don’t vote for anyone who is in office.  Any change is better than the status quo in Washington D.C.!!

thanks to flickr’s will hybrid for the photo of Hoover Dam

However, the levels of the DOW, NASDAQ, and S&P 500 all seem too high right now.  Consider that optimism is often a contrary indicator and it is pretty darn high for the conditions we currently see in the Macro-Econ0mic environment.

Sure, corporate profits have been higher than expected . . . and certainly higher that the prior quarter.  And sure, more money is pouring into funds and equities as year-end approaches . . . no one wants to miss the boat on this run-up.  But is it justified?

Problem is that while profits are increasing revenues are not.  Consumers just aren’t spending like they used to.  So why the profits?

Companies have cut back on labor costs, benefit packages, technology upgrades and many other ‘line items’ to cut costs.  This has led to the higher profits in spite of lower renenues. . . as it should though probably only for a short time.  However, the higher profits come at the expense of higher unemployment, less responsive customer service, slower order times for new products and so on.  How long can this continue?

Not for long I think.

Soon investors are going to start realizing that too.  They will start taking profits, as I did over the last few months (admittedly early though I feel comfortable sitting on the resulting cash).  Then what?

Three months or more out is the concern.

The Christmas season will probably be good because confidence is higher right now.  The all-important consumers will buy lots of stuff.  But, whoops, those #’s are already in the system.  I know, because I’ve been on that train with my own business in the past.  Retailers placed their Christmas orders months ago and most have taken delivery so they can start playing the ’sale’ game early.  This means that the impact of the holiday season for manufacturers and distributors and most of the rest of the economy is already accounted for.

Only retailers are going to benefit from now through the end of December.

Hence, while profits may be up this quarter (not revenues, remember) and the lagging Christmas retail #’s may be good, beginning in January things may start to look bleak once again.  Sales will decline, orders too.  Unemployment may take a few months of even worse levels.  You know the drill.  We have been living it for nearly two years.

Oh, yeah what about the market?

The stock market  is a leading indicator . . . reflecting the views of investors out six months or so.  We’ve already had some good numbers for the 3rd quarter and Intel — a bell weather tech stock — is expected to show positive numbers tomorrow.

But the economy just doesn’t seem strong enough to followup despite all the optimism (one key here is that stock analysts are notoriously slow in picking up a change in sentiment).  If the numbers don’t keep picking up then the market will start reflecting that well in advance (and the new year is ONLY three months out!).

Which means any time after this week (i.e. after the good numbers that are expected this week are digested and reality sets in) the crap could hit the proverbial fan.

My opinion?

I think there is going to be a pull back of around 20% or more. A lot worse than the 5% or so that CNBC’s Cramer is hyping.

My cash may be golden in a few weeks or months and then I won’t feel so bad about missing out on theimpressive run-up since the March 9 low.

Buy low, sell high.  That is a LOT harder than it sounds!

Let me know what you think.  What the heck do I (we) do with cash in the next pull-back?

Ah, boy, ain’t life great.